Autumn of falling governors
Four new governors are appointed in Russian regions after several resign
Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
New governors were appointed in four Russian regions: Yevgeny Pervyshov in the Tambov Region, Yury Slyusar in the Rostov Region, Rostislav Goldshtein in the Komi Republic, and Maria Kostyuk in the Jewish Autonomous Region.
A conflict between Governor Georgy Filimonov and Severstal businessowner Alexey Mordashov is escalating in the Vologda Region.
Russian forces have made significant advances in eastern Ukraine, threatening the vital logistics hubs of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Falling governors, Fall 2024
Four new governors were appointed in Russia this week after three regional leaders resigned in close succession. Maxim Egorov, Governor of the Central Russian Tambov Region, was the first to go. Egorov was appointed to his position only three years ago and is an ally of Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin (along with several other governors). He will be replaced by Yevgeny Pervyshov, a former war participant, who, after he returned from Ukraine, participated in the “Time of Heroes” programme, a public administration management training for war participants overseen by the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Pervyshov is the first governor to be appointed after going through this programme, although it is worth noting that Artyom Zhoga, a recently-appointed presidential plenipotentiary in the Urals Federal District, participated in the programme as well. It is also worth noting that, unlike Zhoga, Pervyshov already had experience in public administration prior to the war as the former mayor of Krasnodar, a major city in Southern Russia.
The next to resign was Vasily Golubev, Governor of the Rostov Region, whose dismissal was expected given that he has occupied the position since 2010, making him one of the longest-serving sitting governors. It was widely anticipated that Golubev would get an appointment to the Federation Council representing the Rostov Region; however, shortly after his resignation, news emerged that the Federal Security Service (FSB) has conducted searches at his offices. His successor will be Yury Slyusar, the CEO of the United Aircraft Corporation, a defense industrial firm, a slightly unusual choice. However, his appointment both furthers defense conglomerate Rostec’s expanding influence over regional governments and seems to fall in line with the recent Kremlin policy of appointing people with local roots and federal administrative experience to head key regions.
The third governor to leave turned out to be Vladimir Uiba, the head of the Komi Republic. Again, the Governor’s resignation was not a surprise, given Uiba’s unpopularity and conflicts with the local elite. Uiba, a doctor, was appointed to head the region in 2020, at the height of the COVID pandemic. Now he will return to medicine as the deputy head of the Main Military Medical Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. His place will be taken over by Rostislav Goldshtein, a veteran official. Goldshtein has so far led the far-eastern Jewish Autonomous Region, one of Russia’s poorest and least-populated regions. He will be succeeded in that position by Maria Kostyuk. Like Slyusar, Kostyuk has local roots and experience in federal roles. Like Pervyshov, she has links to the “Time of Heroes” programme, which she has headed. And like Zhoga, she has both been one of the faces of Putin’s 2024 presidential campaign and lost her son in the war.
These appointments point to clear patterns emerging in the Kremlin’s regional personnel policy after almost three years of war: the reliance on locals with strong federal links, the growing influence of the defense industrial complex, and the performative focus on promoting the “new elite” of war participants, primarily those with strong prior credentials in public administration.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Russia launched dozens of satellites into orbit on Tuesday, including several in cooperation with other countries. Of the 55 satellites launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome on November 5, one was a Russian-Chinese student satellite (Druzhba ATURK), one was a Russian-Zimbabwean satellite, and two were privately-built Iranian devices (Koswar and Hodhod, built by Iran’s Omid Faza Company). The Soyuz-2.1b rocket booster pictured here carried two Russian Ionosfera-M satellites into space to monitor Earth's ionosphere. According to Roscosmos, Tuesday’s launch set the record for the number of Russian satellites simultaneously put into orbit. (photo: Roscosmos / Handout via REUTERS)
Mordashov vs. the government
An increasingly open conflict is developing in the Vologda Region, an important metallurgical center, between Georgy Filimonov, the region’s governor, and Alexey Mordashov, one of Russia’s wealthiest businessmen and the head of Severstal (the region’s largest employer).
In September this year, the governor accused Mordashov of disrupting a project of social significance and engaging in “trickery” after one of Mordashov's companies allegedly refused to implement an investment project previously agreed upon with the regional government. More recently, rumors surfaced that Mordashov has been trying to use his connections in the Kremlin to have Filimonov removed from office.
The conflict between the governor and Mordashov has deeper roots, and Filimonov likely simply represents the federal government’s positions. The businessman—who is under Western sanctions—has previously criticized the war in Ukraine as well as the federal government’s tax hikes. The governor, who was appointed last year, replaced Oleg Kuvshinnikov, a former Severstal employee. He then fired or forced out several of Mordashov’s allies from positions in public administration and has eagerly courted publicity. In September 2024, when Filimonov faced a gubernatorial election, he received only 62% of the vote, one of the lowest among governors running. It was also notable that, according to the official tally, Putin “only” received 79% of the vote in the region in the March 2024 presidential election. Major employers are usually considered to be part of the regional government for purposes such as mobilizing pro-regime voters, and these employers often influence personnel appointments too.
The conflict also prompted as of yet unconfirmed rumors that the federal government has set its sights on Mordashov’s assets, potentially looking for ways to nationalize Severstal. Such a move would not be entirely surprising, given that several other defense-industrial and metallurgical firms have been taken into state ownership over the past two years on various grounds. However, seizing Severstal would likely be seen as a watershed moment, considering the size and the importance of the company. It seems more likely that the federal government is simply trying to assert its power over an influential businessowner who is seen as a potential liability.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
More than 500 Russian tourists are currently stranded aboard a cruise ship docked in Japan. Spectrum of the Seas, operated by Royal Caribbean International, was on a seven-day round trip from China to Japan when the ship experienced engine problems. It docked in Yokohama port, delaying its return to Shanghai by at least several days. Japanese immigration services have agreed to allow Russian tourists to travel through Tokyo to get back to Shanghai, and Royal Caribbean International promised to refund passengers for the cost of the cruise. (photo: Jerome Favre / EPA / TASS)
Ukraine’s struggle in the Donetsk region
Russian forces have made significant advances in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, capturing more territory in this period than during any other time this year. Since early August, Russia has gained 1,146 square kilometers of Ukrainian land—about 25% more than in the first seven months of 2024, according to Bloomberg Intelligence calculations based on data from the DeepState. On November 2, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged the worsening situation, describing the ongoing Russian offensive as “one of the most powerful” since the beginning of the Russian full scale invasion.
The southern part of the Donetsk Region has become the most critical sector of the front line. The capture of Vuhledar in early October gave Russia a strategic advantage in the surrounding open fields, leading to some of its fastest territorial gains since the war’s early months. Last week, Russian forces took control of the town of Selydove, and they are now focusing on the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Kurakhove in particular is under threat of encirclement on three sides. Both Pokrovsk and Kurakhove are vital logistical hubs for Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk Region. Russian advances are now threatening the town of Velyka Novosilka to the west, and, if they continue, they could eventually reach the eastern borders of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
To the northwest of Pokrovsk, heavy urban fighting continues in the cities of Toretsk and Niu York, where Russian forces are making gradual progress through the ruined streets. After mounting sustained pressure on Chasiv Yar, Russian troops breached the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal in mid-October, advancing along the main highway to the occupied city of Bakhmut and entering the urban area of Chasiv Yar itself. If Russian forces continue pushing forward, they could soon close the distance to the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka.
Amid this intensified Russian offensive in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed frustration, telling reporters last week that Ukraine has received only 10% of the $61 billion in U.S. aid pledged in April. He attributed the delays to bureaucratic and logistical hurdles. Kyiv has also repeatedly requested long-range weapons from the U.S. to target Russian military assets deeper inside Russian territory. If these supply issues are not addressed soon, Ukraine may face a tough choice: either accept peace under unfavorable terms or continue the fight alone, especially now with the prospect of a Trump presidency on the horizon.
— Lisa Noskova
On the podcast
Kyiv-based journalist Fabrice Deprez returns to the Brief for another update on the mood in Ukraine, including a report on his recent trip to the frontline city of Pokrovsk.
Quickfire: Regions
The city of Yakutsk, the capital of the Republic of Sakha (or Yakutia), will likely soon see its right to conduct direct mayoral elections scrapped. Viktor Fyodorov, a deputy of the governing United Russia party in the region’s parliamentary assembly, introduced a bill that would establish indirect mayoral elections in all of the Republic’s municipalities. If passed, local assemblies would appoint mayors based on a competition. This will likely allow the region’s governor to more directly influence mayoral appointments, as it happened in other regions where direct mayoral elections were recently scrapped. Tomsk and Novosibirsk, for example, are now both headed by close allies of their regions’ governors, even though in years prior both cities had relatively pluralistic politics (as did Yakutsk, which elected Sardana Avksentieva as mayor in 2018, in opposition to the Kremlin’s preferred candidate). Previously, United Russia deputies of the Yakutsk Assembly and the Regional Assembly proposed introducing such indirect elections as the norm across the country in the framework of a municipal self-governance reform discussed by the State Duma.
Russia is importing butter from the United Arab Emirates, India, Iran, and Turkey to calm the domestic market, according to the country’s agricultural watchdog. The price of butter has risen by 25.7% this year, three times as fast as the official rate of inflation (albeit actual inflation of key everyday goods may be much higher, according to researchers). According to the authorities, one of the reasons why prices are going up is the disruption of imports from Latin America (likely due to international sanctions) and growing disposable incomes. However, the domestic costs of dairy production have also increased. A similar hike in the price of eggs last year caused widespread concern, and even prompted President Putin to publicly berate Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev. Regional governments were entrusted with limiting soaring food prices. In general, consistently stubborn inflation and sudden price hikes like this highlight the continued overheating of Russia’s economy.
Personnel changes continue in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, one of Russia’s main oil-producing regions. This week, Andrei Filatov, the former mayor of Surgut, one of the major cities of the region, was reportedly arrested by the FSB on corruption charges. Тhe charges have to do with a 6-million-ruble bribe that Filatov and the representatives of “Dialog,” a management firm based in Nizhnevartovsk, another major city in the region, allegedly extracted from business owners. Filatov resigned in April, shortly before wider personnel reshuffles in the region saw Ruslan Kukharuk, Mayor of Tyumen, take over as governor and several city leaders replaced. However, Filatov was later appointed as deputy head of the region’s development fund.
— Andras Toth-Czifra