Extremely LGBT
The Russian Justice Ministry filed a lawsuit to label the international LGBT movement as extremist
Hello from the Bear Market Brief, and Happy Thanksgiving!
This week in the news:
The Russian Justice Ministry filed a motion with the Supreme Court to label the international LGBT movement as extremist.
The Russian government continues to crack down on domestic protests against the war.
Russian businessowners complain about an increasingly unpredictable business climate.
The U.S. announced an additional security assistance package for Ukraine.
Polish truckers are protesting EU rules that suspended transport permit requirements for Ukrainian trucks.
LGBT movement labeled extremist
The Russian Justice Ministry filed a motion with the Supreme Court to label the so-called “international LGBT public movement” as extremist. According to the lawsuit, the LGBT movement has been found to “incite social and religious discord” within Russia in violation of anti-extremism laws. If accepted, this petition would make LGBT activists subject to extremism charges that could result in lengthy prison terms. “Essentially, it would entail criminal prosecution based solely on one’s orientation or identity,” an anonymous activist told The Moscow Times. It would also prevent LGBT organizations or charities from operating within the country.
LGBT rights is a contentious issue in Russia. In 2013, the State Duma passed a law against the distribution of “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relationships” to minors. Last year, the law was expanded to prohibit the promotion of “non-traditional sexual relationships” to any age group, effectively banning any positive depictions of same-sex relationships in the media. Since then, TV shows, games, and books have all censored their content to comply. Breaking the law can result in a fine of up to 400,000 rubles ($6,600) for individuals or 5 million rubles ($82,100) for companies. At the St. Petersburg Cultural Forum last Friday, President Putin answered a question about LGBT representation in Oscar-winning Western films. They have a right to win, he said, “Because this is also part of society.” However, he added, “It’s only bad if they win all the competitions. That’s useless.” Political analysts have suggested that the Justice Ministry’s petition may be a way for the government to garner public support ahead of Russia’s 2024 presidential election.
The Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the petition next Thursday, November 30.
— Sara Ashbaugh
Last week, Finland closed four of its border crossing checkpoints with Russia due to an influx of migrants. This week, it announced the closure of three more: Salla, Kuusamo, and Vartius. Russian authorities reported that over 250 asylum seekers were waiting to cross into Finland at the Salla checkpoint. According to Murmansk Governor Andrei Chibis, 200 of them will remain in Russia. Another 55 will be transported to the only remaining open border checkpoint with Finland located in the Murmansk oblast, where authorities say more than 400 people are already waiting. Part of Russia’s border with Finland in the Murmansk oblast is pictured here. (photo: Lev Fedoseyev / TASS)
Concerns about domestic protests
The Russian government has reacted to planned protests of relatives of mobilized soldiers with concern. Citing Kremlin sources, the news outlet Vyorstka reported that the Presidential Administration called on governors to use financial means to prevent such protests. The federal government is ready to increase transfers to poorer regions (which have proportionally more men mobilized) for social aid if needed. The Kremlin also wants the issue to be handled through the Defenders of Fatherland association headed by Anna Tsivileva, the wife of the governor of the Kemerovo Region and a relative of President Putin. One such protest took place in Moscow on November 7, and at least 30 other events have been planned in several other regions. Most of these were not permitted by the authorities. In Novosibirsk, the governor banned protests outright in 37 squares around the region. There have been reports of law enforcement personnel visiting organizers to remind them of the consequences of attending a non-authorized protest. Authorities have also taken over Telegram chat groups to shut them down, and unknown people have physically limited the media’s access to protest actions.
In general, the Kremlin seems concerned that war fatigue will prompt unexpected protest movements before the March 2024 presidential election, which would give a “bad look” to Putin’s re-election campaign. Beyond the protests mentioned above, the Kremlin is also aware that strongly pro-war campaigns did not do well in the September regional elections. At a seminar held this week in the Senezh management center by the Presidential Administration’s overseers of domestic policy, deputy governors were advised to avoid all mention of “controversial” topics related to the war before the presidential vote and try to conduct a “quiet,” “therapeutic” campaign.
The Kremlin will, in the end, likely obtain the necessary numbers to claim a decisive victory for Putin and his agenda. However, it still matters how much repression and subtler forms of manipulation this will take, especially as domestic fiscal and administrative capacities are stretched increasingly thin. Also this week, Nikolay Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council, again called on governors to prepare plans for the “mobilization” of their economies.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Worsening business climate
Even after the adoption of the 2024 federal budget, concerns remain about the unpredictability of the government’s fiscal policies. Over the past few months, these policies have increasingly seemed to focus on capturing extra income wherever it appears and deteriorating the protection of private property rights. Vedomosti reported that, at a meeting with President Putin on November 15, Russia’s largest employers expressed concern about a recent wave of “nationalizations” (officially the review of certain privatization deals), the pace of which picked up over the summer. This wave has also affected Western companies and their Russian executives, albeit in a different legal framework. In the latest episode, the authorities arrested two executives of the Baltika brewing company, who are suspected of illegally transferring license rights to the owner of the firm, the Danish Carlsberg Group. Baltika was taken under “temporary management” by the government in July.
Alexander Shokhin, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, reportedly even offered to pay more taxes in exchange for a more predictable business environment. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said this week that so far, the treasury has received only 40 billion rubles ($448 million) out of a planned 300 billion ($3.4 billion) from a windfall tax introduced this year to reduce the ballooning fiscal deficit. Siluanov added that the government expects to receive the remaining 260 billion ($2.9 billion) before the end of the year. At the same time, contrary to earlier expectations, Putin proposed extending the moratorium on unscheduled inspections of businesses by another year—until the end of 2024.
A willingness by the Russian business elite to “voluntarily” contribute more funds to the war effort would certainly be welcome by the Kremlin, as next year’s federal budget is based on very optimistic income predictions. However, whether the authorities’ goal is solely to draw more income is up for debate. Over the past year, the Kremlin—and the security services—have been trying to keep control of the rapid restructuring of the economy and the ongoing redistribution of assets triggered by the war in a bid to build a coalition out of the beneficiaries of the war.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Russian firefighter Sofia Kosacheva was placed on the BBC’s list of top 100 inspiring and influential women in 2023. In addition to fighting forest fires herself, Kosacheva also founded a professional community that trains volunteers to fight Russia’s wildfires. “No matter how pervasive the climate crisis is, every big achievement starts with small ones. It may seem that we are too small to change something globally, but we must start with the changes we can make around ourselves,” Kosacheva said. Russian poet Daria Serenko was also placed on the BBC’s list for her feminist books and anti-war activism. (photo: Greenpeace Russia)
U.S. announced new security assistance for Ukraine
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional security assistance package to Ukraine valued at $100 million. The package utilizes assistance for Ukraine authorized under the Presidential Drawdown Authority during prior fiscal years and includes Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and additional ammunition; 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; more than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition; demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; cold weather gear; as well as spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment. This will be the fifty-first tranche of equipment to be provided by DoD inventories to Ukraine since August 2021.
The announcement was released the same day that U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. During his meeting with Secretary Austin, the Ukrainian leader shared updates on the current situation on the battlefield and laid out strategic goals and priority needs of the Ukrainian military. Zelensky emphasized the need to boost Ukraine’s capabilities in the run-up to the winter season. The meeting participants also discussed freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and ensuring the functioning of an alternative grain corridor. Later in the week, Secretary Austin hosted a virtual meeting of the Ramstein group to coordinate further military aid to Ukraine.
— Lisa Noskova
Protests on the Polish-Ukrainian border
Polish truckers have been protesting the EU’s liberalization of transport rules for Ukrainian trucks at three checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border since November 6, causing long lines on both sides. About 3,000 trucks were stuck on the Polish side of the border as of Sunday morning, with only a few vehicles per hour able to go through the Polish border at these checkpoints.
Ukrainian grain brokers said last week that Ukraine’s shipments of food by road decreased by 2.7% in the first 13 days of November due to difficulties on the border caused by the protest. Polish drivers claim that the EU’s 2022 decision to suspend transport permit requirements for Ukrainian trucks to help Ukraine’s export industry following Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports is hurting Polish drivers. They argue that Ukrainian drivers are transporting goods from Poland to third countries at a cheaper rate than what Polish companies can afford.
The drivers stuck in line are facing difficult conditions as it gets colder. Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry launched a humanitarian effort to help Ukrainian truck drivers blocked at three Polish-Ukrainian checkpoints and provide them with food, drinking water, medicine, and fuel. On Monday, news about Polish farmers planning to join the truck drivers at another Polish-Ukrainian border checkpoint in Medyka to stage a three-day protest appeared in the media. Kyiv and Warsaw have been negotiating to resolve this issue, but so far these attempts have been unsuccessful.
— Lisa Noskova
Where does Russian public sentiment on politics and war stand these days? And on a more basic level, how is it measured? Bear Market Brief talked with Isabelle DeSisto of Russia Watcher to learn more!
Quickfire: Regions
Regional authorities introduced a level of “heightened readiness” in the northwestern Murmansk Region bordering Finland due to an influx of migrants into the region attempting to cross into Finland. After more than 800 migrants—mostly from Middle Eastern and African countries—crossed into Finland since August, the Finnish government closed all but one border crossing point on its border with Russia. Additionally, the EU’s border protection agency, Frontex, sent reinforcements to the border. According to the Murmansk authorities, there are more than 400 people currently stuck in the region. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo accused Russia of deliberately destabilizing Finland. Since 2021, Belarusian authorities have tried to put pressure on the government of Poland in a similar way.
A debate around stricter regulation of abortions has continued in several regions after possible new federal policies surfaced that would restrict access to contraception. Authorities in several regions have adopted restrictive legislation or spoken in favor of restricting access to abortion over the past few months. These attempts have continued in an increasing number of regions, but are now triggering backlash. Over the past week, in Nizhny Novgorod activists collected more than 1,000 signatures asking the region’s governor not to sign a recently-adopted regional law banning abortions in private clinics. In Kaliningrad, more than 28,000 women reportedly took a stance against a similar legislative initiative that aims to restrict abortions in the region. The federal authorities have so far not given a clear answer to the protests, likely because it is unclear if they can appeal to a wider audience. While the Kremlin is eager to dress up domestic restrictions (as well as the war in Ukraine) as an attempt to preserve “traditional values,” it is also trying to minimize the risk of any domestic instability before the 2024 presidential election.
Rosstat published its statistical bulletin about Russia’s social and economic situation in the first nine months of 2023. Regional economic figures confirm that over the past few months, the driver of domestic industrial growth has been the defense industrial complex as well as industries on the margins of defense production. On the whole, manufacturing industries increased their production by 7.1% year-on-year, with growth mostly observed in the Central Russian and Volga regions (where many of Russia’s defense plants are located), as well as in a couple of Far Eastern border regions. At the same time, regions relying on resource extraction, such as the Yamal-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Districts or the Krasnoyarsk Territory, continued experiencing a slowdown, as did regions with Western-facing export infrastructures that took a hit in 2022. According to official statistics, on the whole, regional finances appear to be stable, although this seems to be the consequence of the ripple-on effect of war-related spending. Rosstat did not make a regional breakdown available, but personal income tax receipts are noticeably lagging behind corporate tax receipts. This suggests that in spite of a labor shortage in several industries, wage growth has stalled.
— Andras Toth-Czifra