Left on blocked
Russia blocks WhatsApp and restricts access to Telegram
Here’s what you might have missed this week:
Roskomnadzor restricted access to popular social media sites Telegram and WhatsApp, pushing users toward the Kremlin-backed messaging app MAX.
The Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 50 bps from 16% to 15.5%.
Aging public utility infrastructure continued to disrupt access to heat and water in several of Russia’s regions.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Left on blocked
The Russian authorities cranked up their repression of messaging applications independent of the state this week. The government announced a complete block of WhatsApp, which is owned by Meta (earlier labeled a “terrorist or extremist organization” in Russia). Roskomnadzor (RKN), Russia’s federal communications agency, started removing banned and blocked websites and domains—including WhatsApp’s and YouTube’s—from the “National Domain Name System,” which Russia created under the so-called “sovereign Internet” law. Removed domains are still accessible with VPNs, but not from Russian IP addresses.
At the same time, RKN also started to restrict access to Telegram, a messaging app developed by Russian-born entrepreneur Pavel Durov. RKN claimed that it was “protecting citizens” with the restrictions; earlier, the Russian authorities accused Telegram of failing to combat fraud and throttled the messaging service on several occasions. Durov, in turn, accused the Russian authorities of trying to pressure users into switching to MAX, a Kremlin-backed messaging app. The authorities have been trying to build up MAX as an “everything app,” but it has been called spyware by its critics due to its security flaws. Durov also likened the disruptions to unsuccessful attempts by the Iranian authorities to block his app. Andrey Gurulyov, a prominent ruling party deputy in the State Duma, claimed that blocking Telegram was part of Russia’s conflict with NATO.
Blocking Telegram is a complex issue. The app is widely used in Russia by citizens, independent media outlets, researchers, cybercriminals, and scammers, as well as by public officials, pro-Kremlin propagandists, and major enterprises, with the security services conducting influence operations using it. Earlier disputes between Russian authorities and Telegram’s founders typically centered not on fraud, but on the degree of cooperation that Telegram is willing to maintain with Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). It is unknown to what extent Telegram is cooperating with various intelligence services, and questions have arisen about the security of the data it transmits.
Prior to major elections, the authorities have frequently increased pressure on Telegram. During the 2021 federal legislative election, Telegram removed the “Smart Voting” bot developed by Alexei Navalny’s campaign, which was intended to frustrate ruling party victories in single-mandate districts. It seems plausible that the authorities are pressuring the app before State Duma elections planned for this September too.
It seems unlikely that, at this point, the authorities will be able to force Telegram’s more than 100 million Russian users to switch to MAX instead. In spite of the authorities’ relentless promotion of the messenger, Telegram fulfills functions that MAX is not well-placed to take over. Even some governing party politicians have criticized the disruptions (along with politicians from so-called “systemic” opposition parties). Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of the Belgorod Region and an official with one of the highest numbers of followers among Russian politicians, warned that Telegram disruptions could interfere with the authorities’ ability to communicate with residents, including about drone attacks in the region. Dmitry Myasnikov, a member of the Irkutsk Region legislative assembly from the United Russia party, lamented that the work invested into creating communications channels on Telegram would go to waste.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Ukrainian skeleton racer Vladyslav Heraskevych was disqualified from the Winter Olympics on Thursday after he insisted on wearing a helmet depicting the faces of Ukrainian athletes killed during the war. A statement by the International Olympic Committee said that Heraskevych was disqualified for “refusing to adhere to the IOC athlete expression guidelines,” which prohibit political demonstrations during the Games. Ukrainian officials criticized the decision, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “This truth cannot be inconvenient, inappropriate, or called a ‘political demonstration at a sporting event.’ It is a reminder to the entire world of what modern Russia is.” Zelenskyy said. Later, he awarded Heraskevych with the Ukrainian Order of Freedom. (photo: Andrea Solero / EPA / Scanpix / LETA)
Central Bank cuts the key rate
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) once again lowered its key rate during the board of directors meeting on Friday. The rate was cut by 50 basis points (bps) from 16% to 15.5%, following a recent trend of rate cuts during the CBR’s rate decision meetings last year. This is the sixth consecutive rate cut since June 6, 2025, signaling cautious optimism from Russia’s financial regulator. “The economy continues to return to a balanced growth path,” the CBR’s press release states. The rate cut came as a surprise to many financial experts, however; after inflation accelerated in January, most analysts expected the Bank to hold the rate at 16%, according to an RBC expert poll.
Despite price growth in January, the Bank remains confident that disinflation will continue for the rest of this year. The “temporary but considerable” price acceleration in January was due to “higher VAT and excise taxes, the indexation of administered prices and tariffs, and price adjustments for fruit and vegetables,” according to the CBR. The Bank’s current forecasts still predict that annual inflation will decrease from 6.3% (as of earlier this week) to between 4.5% and 5.5% by the end of 2026. Additionally, the labor market is cooling slightly, with reported labor shortages reaching their lowest levels since 2023.
While the Bank expects to bring the rate down further at its upcoming board of directors meetings, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina noted that it may tighten monetary policy as necessary to move inflation toward the 4% target. “I want to emphasize once again that our signal is not an unconditional commitment to cut the rate… Therefore, we say that we will assess the advisability of further key rate cuts by analyzing all the data,” she remarked during a press briefing following the meeting. According to macroeconomics analyst Alexander Ivanov, the Bank’s decision to reduce the rate gradually will have significant long term effects. “The chicken pecks grain by grain,” he said, employing a Russian idiom meaning that small consistent efforts add up over time. “The regulator’s small steps are not just a symbolic gesture,” he added.
The CBR will hold its next board of directors meeting to evaluate the rate on March 20.
— Sara Ashbaugh
Quickfire: Regions
The breakdown of aging and overstretched public utility infrastructure has continued to lead to long disruptions in several Russian regions and cities over the past week. Thousands of residents of the Irkutsk Region town of Bodaibo, a center of gold mining, have been forced to heat their homes with electric heaters for more than two weeks (and counting) due to an accident in a boiler house, which in turn put pressure on the electricity grid and created a fire hazard. Water provision was also disrupted in the town. А heating outage in Abakan, the capital of Khakassia, affected 50,000 residents. In one of the districts of Novosibirsk, Russia’s third-largest city, several businesses complained about unreliable electricity provision. At the same time, residents in several regions have complained about significant increases in the price of utilities, which threaten the livelihood of lower-income Russians. The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service announced inspections, claiming that the VAT hike and a 1.7% tariff hike that came into force in January would not justify significantly higher bills. The authorities likely follow these complaints closely, as tariff hikes accompanied by worsening service provision led to protests in several regions before, and the outages are widely recognized as a failure of state institutions.
The deficit of consolidated regional budgets reached 1.538 trillion rubles in 2025, according to data released by the Russian Finance Ministry. This is an unprecedented figure, and a five-fold growth compared to 2024. Regional budgets have been struggling with falling corporate income tax revenues and federal transfers, while their spending on social policy and regional economies have continued to grow. According to the latest data from Russia’s “Electronic Budget,” 70 out of 83 regions were in deficit at the end of 2025. The deficit is not spread evenly: regions such as Kemerovo, Irkutsk, Arkhangelsk, and Murmansk, which have been able to rely more on their own revenues in the past but whose key industries are facing protracted crises, are particularly vulnerable. If federal transfers are not significantly increased, several regions will likely have to make further cuts to headings such as health care and education. Figures on federal finances also suggest a dangerously widening deficit. In January, federal fiscal incomes were 11.6% lower than in the first month of 2025, leading to a federal deficit of 1.7 trillion rubles, almost a half of the amount planned for the whole year. This matters because federal authorities are relying on regional governors and quasi-state actors (corporations and civil society) to manage political risks with as little money as possible. However, some may be incentivized to co-opt rather than suppress dissatisfaction.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
From the frontlines
FPRI Senior Fellow Rob Lee speaks with members of the 7th Rapid Response Corps of Air Assault Forces about the use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) on the Pokrovsk axis. The trio discusses how Defense Forces deploy UGVs, replacing personnel in the most dangerous logistics and evacuation missions. They also discuss whether UGVs can be used as assault platforms and discuss where UGV development is heading this year.
Numbers of the week
37.02 million tons - the amount of cargo transported via the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast in 2025, according to a study by Gekon Consulting. This is 2.3% lower than in 2024. In spite of Russia’s plans to make the route a major transit corridor, due to a lack of suitable vessels to navigate the route year-round and to the fact that the overwhelming majority of cargo remains Asia-bound hydrocarbons, actual volumes have consistently fallen short of plans so far.
1.6 GW - the energy capacity that the Russian government plans to build in the Far East to address the macroregion’s energy deficit (due to inadequate generating capacity) and its growing use (due to Russia’s Asian pivot). Even if the plans are realized, experts have concluded that the region will still lack 700 MW of capacity by 2031. Power grids have also faced increasing strain in Siberian regions.
1 trillion rubles - the losses of Russian oil companies from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, according to the insurance broker “Mains.” This includes estimated lost profits and indirect losses (direct losses are more modest at 100 billion rubles). Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s fuel generating capacity have been considered one of the most impactful campaigns of the war.
50.1% - the share of total infrastructure spending on Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Moscow Region in 2025, according to a new study by the Sherpa Group. The growth of infrastructure spending (10.3%) over 2024 was slightly above inflation, but very uneven; in Siberian and Far Eastern regions, it either declined or did not offset a decline in investments.
13 - the number of Russian athletes competing in the 2026 Winter Olympics. Russia was banned from participating in the Olympics in 2023 following its invasion of Ukraine. While Russian athletes are not allowed to represent their country at the Games, a small number are still allowed to compete as “Individual Neutral Athletes,” or AINs. These athletes are participating in several events at Milano Cortina 2026, including skiing, figure skating, speed skating, and luge.
— Andras Toth-Czifra & Sara Ashbaugh