Making a list, checking it twice
The U.S. amends its 28-point peace plan in cooperation with Ukraine
This week in the news:
After the U.S. received backlash on its initial 28-point peace plan, representatives met with a Ukrainian delegation to revise the plan.
Russia’s largest banks proposed banning online marketplaces from offering discounts to customers who pay through the marketplaces’ subsidiary financial institutions.
Happy Thanksgiving!
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
U.S. peace plan
The Trump administration debuted a 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine last week. The plan was heavily criticized for its concessions to Russia and included several provisions that are considered nonstarters for Ukraine. For example, it stipulated that Ukraine cede the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia, limit the size of its military to 600,000 personnel, and shelve the issue of war crimes. It also demanded that Ukraine promise to never join NATO—an unrealistic prospect given that this would require a constitutional amendment. Additionally, it sought to replace (as of yet unrealized) EU plans to use blocked Russian assets in Belgium as collateral for a loan to finance Ukrainian recovery. Instead, it suggested that only part of these funds should be used for Ukrainian reconstruction, with the United States also getting a share of profits. Finally, the proposal failed to spell out adequate security guarantees for Ukraine. Overall, the plan prompted speculation that, given recent Russian military successes in Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to put more pressure on the White House to accept Russia’s terms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly described it as a Russian “wish list” to several U.S. senators, an account that Rubio later denied.
Communication by the American side has been messy. After the plans were leaked, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff suggested (in a since-removed tweet) that they could have been published by “K,” likely referring to his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev. This week, Bloomberg published the transcript of a call between Witkoff and Yuri Ushakov, another Kremlin aide, during which Witkoff coaches Ushakov on how to present Russia’s aims to President Trump. Bloomberg also published the transcript of a call between Dmitriev and Ushakov discussing the Russian strategy. These transcripts fueled rumors that the contents of the peace plan came directly from Russia. It is unclear who recorded and leaked the calls, with Ushakov hinting that the communication took place on WhatsApp. Altogether, the leaks and confusion may suggest infighting within the administration over the subject of the war in Ukraine.
After the initial proposal faced backlash from Ukraine and its European allies, U.S. officials met with representatives from Ukraine, the UK, France, and Germany for negotiations. During the meeting in Geneva on Sunday, the parties drafted “an updated and refined peace framework,” according to the official White House statement. This version is “significantly better” for Ukraine, a senior official told AFP, although the updated plan has not been released. Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsa participated in the talks and told The Financial Times that the new plan consists of just 19 points, having removed the most politically sensitive elements. “Very few things are left from the original version,” he said. On Tuesday, Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had reached a “common understanding” with the U.S. and he was ready to meet with Trump to hammer out the details. Trump originally said that Ukraine must sign the plan by Thursday, November 27, but he has since backed off this deadline. “The deadline for me is when it’s over,” he told reporters on Air Force One.
At the same time, the Central European news site VSquare and the Hungarian news site Telex revealed that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban traveled to Moscow on November 28 for talks with President Putin. Orban himself later confirmed the visit, insisting that the talks concern Russian oil sales to Hungary. Budapest was recently selected as a potential location for a “peace summit” between Putin and Trump, which would be welcome news to Orban’s embattled government. Orban himself earlier called on the EU to support the original 28-point plan without objections.
Putin responded favorably to the original proposal, but appeared skeptical of the new changes. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll went to Abu Dhabi this week to discuss the plan with a Russian delegation, and Witkoff is scheduled to travel to Moscow next week to continue negotiations. A major sticking point will likely be Russia’s demand for full control of the Donbas. It currently occupies nearly 90% of the region, which is made up of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia has maintained this goal throughout previous peace negotiations, consistently insisting on complete Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk.
Meanwhile, Russia has not scaled back its attacks on Ukraine. On Monday night, the capital city Kyiv was targeted by at least 22 missiles and 460 drones, according to Zelenskyy. The strikes killed seven people and affected access to water, electricity, and heat in parts of the city.
— Sara Ashbaugh & Andras Toth-Czifra
This week’s peace talks came amid an ongoing corruption scandal in Ukraine. Earlier this month, several top government officials were charged with extracting $100 million in kickbacks from contractors of the state nuclear company Energoatom. The scandal has been nicknamed “Mindichgate” after President Zelenskyy’s former business partner Timur Mindich, who orchestrated the scheme. Zelenskyy dismissed two cabinet ministers (Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk and Justice Minister German Galushchenko) as a result of the investigation, and on Friday, Presidential Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak resigned. Yermak submitted his resignation after his home and offices were searched by investigators from Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies. Afterwards, Zelenskyy said that he would be “resetting” his entire presidential office. “I don’t want anybody to be questioning Ukraine, and that’s why we have today’s decisions,” he said. (photo: AP / TASS)
Banks vs. marketplaces
Russia’s five largest banks proposed a ban on online marketplaces offering discounts and cashback to customers who pay via a bank affiliated with that marketplace. The proposal calls on the government to enforce a single pricing regime for marketplaces and to prohibit them from investing in price reductions. The banks’ position is also supported by the Central Bank. Prior to announcing the proposal, German Gref, the head Sber, accused marketplaces of underpaying 1.5 trillion rubles in taxes.
In an open letter responding to the proposal, Tatyana Kim, founder of Russia’s largest online marketplace Wildberries, accused banks—especially Sber, Russia’s largest lender and an important player in the platform economy—of anti-competitive behavior and of offloading the costs associated with cashback and discounts onto marketplaces. Kim also warned that accepting the banks’ proposal could worsen inflation, since marketplaces would stop offering discounts. Oleg Deripaska, an influential businessman, criticized the plans as well. As of November 27, the federal government has not taken a position publicly.
The debate offers a glimpse into the growing conflict between Russian banks and marketplaces over control of Russia’s platform economy. A year ago, banks affiliated with Wildberries and two other major marketplaces, Ozon and Yandex Market, accounted for 40% of e-money transactions (following the dispute, Ozon’s shares experienced a sell-off). Market participants may also fear that the Russian government will eventually choose to elevate one platform over the others, as seems to be happening with digital communications and VK.
Last year, during the much-disputed merger of Wildberries with Russ, proponents of the merger reportedly argued that the company could become the core of the development of a native platform to rival SWIFT. The idea that the merger could guide Russia to “digital sovereignty” may have helped to secure the Kremlin’s blessing. Once again, Kim is using an issue that the federal government is very sensitive about—inflation—to argue her case. Meanwhile, Gref is essentially suggesting that the government could instead extract more money from marketplaces to prop up Russia’s shaky federal budget.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
A group of divers discovered what is thought to be a Russian tracking device in British waters last week. Neptune’s Army of Rubbish Cleaners (NARC), a volunteer scuba-diving ocean cleanup crew, found the device in the Skomer Marine Conservation Zone off the coast of Wales. According to the BBC, two independent defense analysts identified the object as a Russian RGB-1A sonobuoy, usually used to detect submarines. “Although there are suggestions that the device is no longer in active use, several of the same model have been found on beaches in UK, Ireland, and Lithuania in recent years,” an anonymous expert said. NARC reported the find to the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency, whose spokesperson confirmed “the communication was registered.” (photo: David Kennard / Neptune’s Army of Rubbish Cleaners)
Quickfire: Regions
The authorities in the Altai Republic are putting increasing pressure on local opposition politicians and activists. Many have pushed back against plans to scrap village councils as part of the region’s municipal reform (implementing the federal reform). Local residents have rallied several times over the past months to preserve a two-tier system of local governance. The region is headed by Andrey Turchak, a formerly influential leader of the United Russia party. Over the past week, the authorities arrested lawyer and activist Dmitry Todoshev for “holding an unauthorized rally” after local residents repeatedly turned out to support him during his trial for disobeying a police officer. Earlier, Ayana Temeeva, a well-known local artist, was fined for the same alleged offense. Meanwhile, upon Turchak’s request, the region’s legislative assembly will discuss a bill that would redefine deputies’ public meetings with voters as rallies, essentially banning them unless they receive approval from the authorities. Over the past months, local deputies who are opposed to the municipal reform have used public meetings as a tool to express their disagreement. For Turchak, the implementation of the reform with as few concessions as possible is likely important to improve his chances of promotion.
According to the recently released figures of non-consolidated regional finances (without municipal budgets) reviewed in a report by Expert RA, the situation for regional budgets continues to be difficult. In the first nine months of the year, the aggregate deficit of regional budgets was 169.2 billion rubles. At the same time a year ago, regional budgets had an 849.1 billion ruble aggregate surplus (albeit the Finance Ministry’s data is slightly different). The primary cause of the growing deficit is a drop in corporate income tax revenues, which were 2.6% below last year in nominal terms. Given that regional budgets face the heaviest expenditures in the last quarter of the year, and expenditures have grown consistently faster than revenues so far this year, the gap may widen further. The budgets of two-thirds of Russia’s regions are in deficit, with the situation being particularly bad in some regions that rely on commodities exports, such as the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, and the Kemerovo, Irkutsk, Tyumen, and Novosibirsk regions. Other regions are also facing liquidity problems. The government of the Republic of Sakha announced that it is suspending certain payments to war participants due to cash flow issues in the budget, and in the Transbaikal Territory, the government was unable to allocate funds for railway transit subsidies. Several regions have, over the past weeks, prepared their 2026 budgets with conservative revenue estimates.
The federal government issued a decree stipulating regional utility tariff hikes for 2026. According to the document, tariffs will be raised twice: by 1.7% on January 1 and again after Russia’s federal legislative election in October. The latter hike will be significantly bigger, between 8% and 22% or more depending on the region. In many regions, it will be significantly above both this year’s average tariff hikes (at 11.9%) and inflation forecasts for 2026. The authorities regard tariff hikes as a necessary part of incentivizing providers to maintain and repair aging utility infrastructure that keeps breaking down at an increasing pace—repairs that the federal government has been reluctant to fund. However, since tariff hikes are often not reflected in the quality of the service, these unpopular measures have led to protests in several regions over the past years.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Pretty sure Zelensky's cabal is naughty not nice.