Not so tariff-ic
Russia was not included on the list of countries facing new U.S. tariffs
Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
Russian economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev visited the U.S. for talks with top Trump administration officials.
The Russian military will call up 160,000 men during this year’s spring draft, its largest conscription effort in more than a decade.
Ukraine is working with the U.S. on a new version of the rare minerals agreement that was put on hold in February.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Russian envoy visits Washington
Russian economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev is in Washington, D.C. this week to meet with officials from the Trump administration. Dmitriev, head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund and the Kremlin’s special representative for economic cooperation, is the highest-ranking Russian official to visit the U.S. since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On Wednesday afternoon, he met with Trump ally Steve Witkoff, U.S. special envoy to the Middle East. Both Dmitriev and Witkoff were among their countries’ respective delegations during the initial round of U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia on February 18. However, Dmitriev made no mention of Ukraine in his statement about Russia’s objectives for this week’s meetings. In a post on Telegram, he said that the aim was to “restore dialogue” and find opportunities for “constructive interaction, including in the investment and economic sphere.”
Talks between Dmitriev and Trump administration officials continued on Thursday, although details of the meetings have not been released. Speaking via video to Russian journalists, Dmitriev said the two sides discussed cooperation in the Arctic, rare earth metals, and restoring air travel between the U.S. and Russia. He also acknowledged that disagreements between the two countries persist. “But, at the same time, it's definitely proceeding in a positive and constructive way,” he said. The White House has not commented on the talks with Dmitriev.
The visit comes just days after President Trump said that he was “very angry” with Vladimir Putin for remarks that Putin made about Zelenskyy’s credibility. On Friday, Putin said that Zelenskyy does not have the legitimacy to sign a peace agreement and called for a “transitional administration” to take over Ukraine before a ceasefire can be reached. “What for? To organize a democratic presidential election that would result in the coming to power of a competent government that would have the confidence of the people,” he said. The next day, Trump told NBC News that he was “pissed off” about Putin’s statements, despite the fact that Trump himself has questioned Zelenskyy’s legitimacy in the past. In the interview, Trump also threatened to impose a 50% secondary tariff on countries that import Russian oil if a ceasefire agreement is not reached within the month. “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault…I am going to put secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia,” he told NBC’s Kristen Welker.
Notably, Russia was not on the list of countries that Trump designated for the sweeping new tariff measures he announced on Wednesday. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Russia was omitted from the list because sanctions already “preclude any meaningful trade,” despite the fact that, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, trade between the U.S. and Russia was worth $3.5 billion in 2024. Russia is not out of the woods yet, however; a bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill that would impose new sanctions on Russia if a peace agreement is not reached. These include a 500% secondary tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. The bill would also prohibit U.S. institutions from investing in organizations associated with the Russian government and U.S. citizens from buying Russian government bonds.
— Sara Ashbaugh
On Friday, Russian diamond producer Alrosa announced that it has finished cutting the largest diamond in Russian history—a 100-carat yellow diamond named “New Sun.” The stone, which is roughly a billion years old, was unearthed at the Ebelyakh mine in the Far East Sakha Republic. It initially weighed 200 carats, and the cutting process took 15 specialists more than two years to complete. Alrosa called the discovery of the diamond “one of the most significant events in the gemstone industry in recent years” and touted the gem-cutting technique that was used to shape it, known as the Russian Cut. (photo: Alrosa)
Spring conscription begins in Russia
Russia’s annual spring draft began on Tuesday. Between April 1 and July 15, the Russian military will call up 160,000 men aged 18-30 for mandatory service—its largest conscription target in 14 years. Russia holds drafts twice a year, in the spring and the fall, and the numbers have risen steadily since the invasion of Ukraine. Last year, Russia conscripted a total of 283,000 men (150,000 in the spring and 133,000 in the fall), an increase of 28,500 compared to 2022.
Putin announced the new conscription target by Presidential decree on Monday, likely as part of his ongoing effort to boost Russia’s military recruitment. In 2023, the State Duma passed a law increasing the maximum age for compulsory military service from 27 to 30, expanding the pool of potential conscripts. The law also prohibited conscripts from leaving the country and introduced higher fines for avoiding military service. Putin has increased the size of Russia’s military three times since the invasion of Ukraine; the latest was in September, when he ordered the military to expand to 2.39 million personnel (including 1.5 million active servicemen) by 2026, increasing its ranks by approximately 180,000.
Military recruitment has become increasingly important as Russia experiences heavy troop losses in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian officials, as many as 900,000 Russian troops have been killed or seriously wounded fighting on the frontlines, an estimate that was corroborated by the British Defense Ministry. Last week, independent news outlet Mediazona released a report on Russian military losses that verified the deaths of over 100,000 soldiers. Authors of the report noted that the actual death toll was likely at least twice that amount.
Despite an urgent need for troops to fuel the Russian invasion, the Defense Ministry insists that the current draft is “in no way connected” to the special military operation. Under Russian law, conscripts cannot be sent to active combat zones during their 12 months of compulsory service. Vice Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyanskiy confirmed this on Tuesday, reiterating that conscripts would “not be deployed to the new territories.” However, Ukraine has repeatedly reported encountering Russian conscripts on the frontlines, and Putin has admitted that conscripts were mistakenly deployed to Ukraine early in the invasion. Additionally, conscripts were mobilized to defend Russia during Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk Region, with dozens reportedly captured as prisoners of war. Furthermore, although conscripts cannot legally be deployed, many are pressured or misled into signing military contracts following their conscription period.
— Sara Ashbaugh
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska visited Bucha this week to mark the third anniversary of the liberation of the city from Russian troops. The pair placed candles at a memorial site, followed by a minute of silence in memory of the civilians killed during the Russian occupation. Zelenskyy also attended the 2025 Bucha Summit on Monday, along with delegates from the parliaments of 17 other European countries. A joint statement from the Summit condemned Russia’s “unprovoked and unjustified” war against Ukraine and called for the “strongest possible” measures to be taken against Russia. (photo: The Presidential Office of Ukraine)
U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal revived
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a Ukrainian delegation will soon visit the U.S. to discuss the minerals deal. Earlier, Ukraine’s Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko revealed that Kyiv received an updated draft of the minerals agreement and is now working to align it with Ukrainian interests. As a reminder, the U.S. and Ukraine previously agreed to sign a document that would obligate both countries to initiate intergovernmental negotiations for a subsequent agreement on the Reconstruction Investment Fund. This fund would be jointly owned and managed by the U.S. and Ukrainian governments and financed through royalties from resource extraction, including oil and gas.
Following the Oval Office spat between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, and JD Vance, the deal was temporarily put on hold. In March, it was reported that President Trump wanted to renegotiate the minerals agreement into a “larger and better” version. According to media reports, the Trump administration sought to introduce new terms, including U.S. control over Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. President Zelenskyy commented that the conditions of the deal are constantly changing. “It seemed like we had already agreed on a framework agreement, and then a full agreement would follow. Now the U.S. is proposing to sign the full agreement right away. This requires thorough examination,” he said during a press conference in Paris at the end of March.
Ukrainian parliament deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak stated that he had a chance to review the new version of the agreement, in which the Americans propose that the majority of the Fund’s management be held by U.S. representatives (3 out of 5 members). Additionally, all new investment projects would initially be offered to the American side, and any changes would be made in agreement with the U.S. According to him, the text does not include provisions regarding nuclear power plants or ports, instead focusing on resource extraction by state and private companies. However, it also lacks security guarantees from the U.S.
— Lisa Noskova
On the podcast
The two weeks after Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Oval Office clash have precipitated drastic shifts in transatlantic relations and the potential trajectory of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now a possible ceasefire is on the horizon.
This week on the Bear Market Brief podcast, host Aaron Schwartzbaum and Maximilian Hess make sense of the Oval Office blow-up and discuss President Trump’s strategic aims, Russia’s goals, Europe’s response, the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, and what might come next with Russian sanctions.
Quickfire
Russia continues to bombard Ukraine with airstrikes after Putin refused to accept the 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the U.S. and Ukraine. On Friday, a Russian ballistic missile struck Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, killing 16 people and wounding dozens more. The missile hit near a children’s playground, and nine children were among the victims. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the target of the attack was a meeting of “unit commanders and Western instructors,” but did not provide any evidence for this claim. This is the second strike on Kryvyi Rih this week; four people died when a missile hit the city center on Wednesday. “There is only one reason why this continues: Russia doesn't want a ceasefire, and we see it. The whole world sees it,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on Telegram following the attack.
Forbes released its annual ranking of the richest people in the world this week, adding 15 new Russian billionaires to the list. Overall, Russia had 140 billionaires this year, with a total net worth of $580 billion. The U.S. topped the list as the country with the most billionaires, followed by China, India, Germany, and then Russia. Vagit Alekperov, founder of Lukoil, remains Russia’s richest person with a net worth of $28.7 billion. However, Alexei Mordashov, majority shareholder in steel producer Severstal, and Leonid Mikhelson, chairman of gas company Novatek, are not far behind. Only 13.4% of the world's billionaires are women, and only five of those are Russian. For the fifth year in a row, Russia’s richest woman is Tatiana Kim, founder and CEO of online retailer Wildberries, with a net worth of $4.6 billion.
Several U.S. companies are considering attending the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) this summer, according to the event’s organizers. In the past, the flagship economic showcase has attracted entrepreneurs from all over the world, but international engagement waned following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Although the presence of American companies at the forum has declined since 2021, representatives of the U.S. business community continue to take part, and several companies are expected to attend in 2025,” the Roscongress Foundation said. Although the presence of American businesses at the Forum may indicate a thawing of Russia’s international isolation, it is unlikely that Western companies will return to Russia anytime soon. According to Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov, the Ministry has not received any requests from foreign businesses wanting to reenter Russian markets, and an investigation by The Bell found no large Western companies currently planning a return.
— Sara Ashbaugh