Phone tag
Trump discusses ending the war with Putin and Zelenskyy
Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
President Trump had a phone call with Vladimir Putin in which they agreed to start peace negotiations “immediately.”
The first day of the Munich Security Conference was dominated by discussions about the war in Ukraine.
A new bill in the State Duma proposes harsher penalties for “discrediting the army,” widening the scope of Russia’s repressive legislation.
President Putin dismissed Governor Andrei Nikitin from his position in the Novgorod Region.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Trump’s calls with Putin and Zelenskyy
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed to initiate peace negotiations “immediately.” According to Trump’s post on Truth Social, following the conversation, he assigned Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations. Interestingly, he did not mention Keith Kellogg, his Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. According to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, the phone call lasted 90 minutes, and Putin extended an invitation for Trump to visit Moscow.
After his discussion with Putin, Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy noted that the two leaders spoke about potential paths to peace, as well as Ukraine's technological capabilities, including drones and manufacturing. On Truth Social, Trump posted that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would meet with Zelenskyy on Friday during the Munich Security Conference to further efforts towards ending the war.
Earlier that day, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth addressed the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, where he urged NATO allies to increase their defense spending. He also stated that NATO membership for Ukraine would not be a realistic outcome of any peace settlement with Russia. Additionally, he said that attempting to restore Ukraine’s 2014 borders was not a feasible objective. President Trump later echoed Hegseth’s remarks.
On Thursday, several European allies responded to Trump’s and Hegseth’s statements, arguing that Ukraine and Europe should be involved in the negotiations. Vice President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas, stated, “It is clear that any deal made behind our backs will not work. Any agreement must also include Ukraine and Europe.” She also criticized Hegseth’s comments about NATO membership for Ukraine and the possibility of de-occupying its territories, accusing Hegseth of appeasing Russia. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also expressed that it would have been better if U.S. officials had not made concessions to Russia before peace talks even began.
— Lisa Noskova
American teacher Marc Fogel returned home this week after 4 years in Russian detention. He was freed as part of a prisoner swap between the U.S. and Russia, which also saw the release of Russian cybercriminal Alexander Vinnik. “I feel like the luckiest man on earth right now,” Fogel said during his visit to the White House on Tuesday. President Trump hailed the deal as a step in the right direction towards ending the war in Ukraine. “We were treated very nicely by Russia. Actually, I hope that's the beginning of a relationship where we can end that war,” he said. (photo: Allison Robbert / AFP)
Munich Security Conference begins
The annual Munich Security Conference (MSC) kicked off on Friday, with a large focus on the war in Ukraine. Dozens of world leaders and decision-makers were in attendance, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who discussed potential peace negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Prior to his highly-anticipated meeting with Zelenskyy, Vance delivered an address on the main stage of the conference. During the speech, he did not discuss the war in Ukraine, but instead criticized Europe for retreating from its “fundamental values,” such as free speech and democracy. “The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia. It’s not China. It’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within,” Vance said. European leaders condemned the speech as insulting and untrue, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. “If I have understood him correctly, he is comparing conditions in parts of Europe with those in authoritarian regimes...that is not acceptable,” Pistorius said.
Vance’s speech came just a few days after Trump’s controversial phone call with Vladimir Putin, when the pair agreed to “immediately” start peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. European allies were blindsided by the announcement and feared being shut out of the negotiations. “Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations,” a joint statement released by several European countries said, “A just and lasting peace in Ukraine is a necessary condition for a strong transatlantic security.” Ahead of the MSC, Zelenskyy also reiterated that any meaningful peace talks must include Ukraine. “We, as an independent country, simply will not be able to accept any agreements without us,” Zelenskyy told reporters. “Today it's important that everything does not go according to Putin's plan, in which he wants to do everything to make his negotiations bilateral [with the U.S.],” he continued.
Vance and Zelenskyy met on the sidelines of the conference on Friday, having what Vance described as a “fruitful” discussion. Zelenskyy agreed that it was a “good conversation,” but also emphasized that the U.S. and Ukraine needed to “speak more, work more” towards real security guarantees for Ukraine. Earlier this week, Trump suggested that he would meet with Putin in person sometime soon, “probably” in Saudi Arabia. Zelenskyy has signaled that he is willing to meet with Putin, but only after a common plan is agreed upon between Zelenskyy and Trump, which will require further negotiations.
— Sara Ashbaugh
Further tightening of repressive laws
Duma deputies Irina Yarovaya and Vasily Piskarev submitted a bill, also supported by the government, that introduces tougher penalties for “discrediting the army,” a flexible charge that the authorities have used to crack down on any form of dissent or criticism of the war in Ukraine. The new bill, when adopted, will allow the authorities to immediately initiate a criminal case against individuals (previously, in the first instance, those found guilty would just be fined). The bill also increases penalties for calling for international sanctions or assisting in the implementation of “anti-Russian” measures.
This bill comes closely on the heels of other repressive proposals. In late January, the government suggested increasing the penalties for those violating existing restrictive legislation on “foreign agents” (i.e. by not declaring themselves as such). Last week, the government introduced a bill that will make it easier for the authorities to label organizations and communities “extremist” by making a previous conviction of one of the founders on extremism charges a sufficient condition, all while also toughening penalties for “inciting hatred” or “calls to violence.” Being labeled an “extremist” will lead to an individual losing access to Russia’s financial infrastructure, and organizations can be swiftly disbanded and criminalized by the label. Last year, more than 3,000 people were added to the list of “extremists and terrorists” by Russia’s financial watchdog, including Yulia Navalnaya and independent artists. Patriarch Kirill, head of the Kremlin-aligned Russian Orthodox Church, recently suggested adding the poorly-defined “Satanism” movement to the list.
All of the above changes would both increase the deterring force of existing repressive legislation and make it easier for the authorities to use these laws against critics of the government, either by further streamlining the process or by expanding their scope. On the one hand, this is a natural evolution of repressive legislation at a time when signaling loyalty to a leader and his cause is a main driver of legislative and executive action. However, it may also suggest that the authorities are aware of the potential political risks stemming from a slowing economy and persistently high inflation in 2025.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
A Russian drone hit the protective shelter over the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on Friday, causing an explosion. According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, the drone struck the roof of the “New Safe Confinement,” a concrete and steel structure built over Reactor 4 to contain radiation. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed the attack, stating that emergency responders extinguished the resulting fire. The structure was not breached and radiation levels are stable, the IAEA reported. Concerns about further Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure remain, however. Moscow has denied responsibility for the attack. (photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine)
Winter Gubernatoropad
President Vladimir Putin dismissed Andrei Nikitin from the position of governor of the Novgorod Region on February 7. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin then appointed Nikitin as Deputy Minister for Transportation in the federal government to replace Dmitriy Bakanov, who was recently appointed head of Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency.
Nikitin, former head of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (a government think tank), has been governor of Novgorod since 2017. He was in the cohort of outsider technocrat governors and was most recently reelected in 2022. The dismissal of a governor in the middle of their term is an unusual move, as is the fact that it was not immediately followed by the presidential appointment of a new governor. It does not appear, however, that Nikitin’s dismissal was a punishment for anything that he did (or did not do) as governor—if anything, elevation to a position in the federal government after a period of time spent in the regions is a core promise of Russia’s current system of governance to technocratic governors and their teams.
As Nikitin is seen as an ally of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, with whom he has previously worked closely, rumors have been circulating that he could potentially oversee domestic drone production in his new office (also considering his active interest as governor in promoting Novgorod as a center for drone development). This field is managed by the Ministry of Industry, however. It is also worth noting that his new superior, Transportation Minister Roman Starovoit, has been criticized for his earlier tenure as governor of the Kursk Region. Starovoit was governor immediately prior to the Ukrainian army’s incursion, when the region’s failing defensive structures were erected. An investigation into these construction projects is underway and may, over time, lead to the dismissal of Starovoit himself.
For the moment, the governor’s duties are being performed, ex officio, by his deputy Alexander Dronov, a former federal official who came to the region with Nikitin. This does not necessarily mean that Dronov will be Nikitin’s long-term replacement, but in case Putin decides to shake up the regional government further, he will likely do so in the coming couple of weeks. The President usually dismisses and appoints governors in April and May in order to allow new office-holders enough time to set up their teams before elections in September.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
On the podcast
Where does the U.S. stand in the world as Trump (re)assumes office? How is his approach towards Ukraine shaping up? Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore the broader context and drivers of how policy towards Russia will, and will not, be made.
Quickfire: Regions
Alexander Khinshtein, the recently-appointed governor of the Kursk Region, told Vladimir Putin that the regional government has not made any payments to families of soldiers who died in the war against Ukraine or to wounded soldiers since July 2024. Additionally, the region’s budget is currently facing a gap of 17 billion rubles (for comparison, Kursk’s 2025 budgetary income is planned at just under 80 billion). This is after the Kursk Region had to make an emergency payment from the region’s reserve fund to cover the debt it owed to providers of food for refugees fleeing the incursion of the Ukrainian army in the region. Earlier, the regional government estimated that the full damage from the incursion was around 700 billion rubles. Khinshtein’s intention was, without a doubt, to lobby for more federal funding for the region; Kursk saw record growth in federal transfers to its regional budget last year. At the meeting, however, Putin only talked about restoration projects implemented by the federal and regional governments and the potential introduction of subsidized mortgages.
The ongoing crisis of the coal industry continues to have repercussions in the Kemerovo Region, one of Russia’s main coal-producing areas. This week, Governor Ilya Seredyuk had to promise residents that he would find a solution to the shortage of subsidized coal in the region by March. The regional government has been unable to ensure supply due to several coal enterprises facing growing losses over the past year and the government facing a growing number of complaints. Seredyuk claimed that the “survival of the whole industry is at stake.” At the same time, the regional government is also facing a substantial—and likely longer-term—decline in revenues, which makes solving the problem more difficult. Seredyuk and his government are likely waiting for a federal crisis management plan for the coal industry to alleviate part of the burden temporarily. The Kemerovo Region has also suggested suspending import duties to avert the crisis.
Georgy Filimonov, the head of the Vologda Region, will discuss a complete abortion ban for the region with physicians and shareholders of private clinics. With this, Vologda would become the first Russian region to take such a step. Several other regions have limited access to abortion over the past years, with others potentially to follow (depending on the Kremlin’s reaction). While there has not been a federal ban due to the sensitivity of the issue, the new list of key performance indicators for governors issued last year confirmed that (real or symbolic) efforts to increase fertility rates is an important indicator that the Kremlin uses to judge governors. Since his appointment to head the region in 2023, Filimonov has gained notoriety as a flamboyant ultraconservative (in the Russian sense), actively supporting the Kremlin’s pro-war propaganda and even supporting the erection of a new Stalin statue in the regional capital.
— Andras Toth-Czifra