Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
According to the official results, Vladimir Putin won the 2024 Russian presidential election with 87.2% of the vote. However, there are widespread reports of voter coercion and electoral fraud.
A terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue, located in Krasnogorsk near Moscow, resulted in at least 40 dead and 100 wounded.
Ukrainian authorities plan to open 27 new military recruitment centers across the country to provide potential recruits with information, guidance, and support.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Russia’s most dictatorial “election” yet
Russia’s presidential election, held over three days between March 15 and 17, marked a shift in the nature of Russian elections. According to the official results, at a turnout of 77.4%, Vladimir Putin received 87.2% of the vote—the kind of result which, as several observers remarked, one would expect in ossified autocracies such as Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan. Moreover, the President’s result was ostensibly near-uniform across the country: regions with comparatively pluralistic political tendencies and Kremlin-critical protest movements, such as the Khabarovsk Territory or the Yaroslavl Region, implausibly reported support of near or above 80% for Putin. Some polling stations in Moscow reported 99%, a figure more commonly seen in regions such as Chechnya. It is notable that four regions in Northwestern Russia (the Nenets Autonomous District, the Arkhangelsk Region, the Vologda Region, and Karelia) reported slightly less than 80% support for Putin, for unknown reasons.
Analyses performed using electoral fraud researcher Sergey Shpilkin’s method suggest a massive number of “anomalous” votes in favor of Putin. The Novaya Gazeta newspaper estimated that 31.6 million of the 64.7 million “physical” (non-online) votes officially cast for Putin were falsified. Researcher Ivan Shukshin published a more conservative estimate of 22 million, underlining that the real number could be higher. This would not make the election the most falsified vote in Russia’s post-Soviet history (estimates of fraud during the 2020 constitutional referendum were even higher), but it would make the vote the most falsified presidential election. The independent electoral observation organization Golos called it an “imitation” vote, listing various instances of fear and coercion.
Fraud estimates are based on identifying discrepancies, at the level of polling stations, between official figures and what is considered to be a normal distribution of votes. Many polling stations could simply have falsified turnout and pro-Putin vote figures outright, reporting numbers that reflected a turnout of more than 75% and a pro-Putin vote of more than 85%. Polling stations may also have reduced the number of votes cast for Vladislav Davankov, the candidate of the New People party, whom some considered the closest to a “pro-peace” candidate among Putin’s designated sparring partners. Specific examples of taking votes away from Davankov have been reported from several regions, including the candidate’s home city. Anomalous turnout jumps were reported from several regions (see researcher Roman Udot’s chart for Kemerovo, one of Russia’s so-called “electoral sultanates” for its well-oiled political machine) already on the first day of the vote, which is traditionally when the authorities have used more subtle forms of manipulation such as coerced voting.
It is worth noting that Shpilkin’s method can show the level of certain kinds of fraud, such as ballot-stuffing or the falsification of electoral protocols, but, by its nature, does not show the full effect of “softer” manipulation methods such as coerced voting (which was reportedly also prevalent in many regions). The above estimates also disregard online voting, which officially accounted for 8 million votes, skewed significantly towards Putin, and which got him over 80% in Moscow. It also doesn’t include votes ostensibly cast in the newly-occupied territories of Ukraine (officially more than 4 million votes), which are impossible to verify. Therefore, it is difficult to draw conclusions in regards to Putin's “real support.” However, it is very likely that the actual turnout was significantly lower than the reported 77.4%, in spite of the authorities’ attempts to coerce or motivate people to vote (including with raffles, concerts and other kinds of spectacles, and by pressuring them through their workplaces). Even though Putin’s pre-falsification result was still plausibly over 70%, a much lower turnout would suggest that the authorities are having difficulty turning a large majority of people out in his favor. Arguably, Putin’s result would have fallen short of the 60 million votes that, according to FPRI fellow Olga Khvostunova, the Kremlin desired.
The vote was accompanied by protests from activists and opposition voters both in Russia and abroad. There were at least 40 cases of voters across Russia committing arson attacks against polling stations or trying to spoil ballots—most often with zelyonka, a green dye more commonly associated with political violence (albeit some of them may have been victims of telephone scams). Many Russians served as independent election observers, even though the authorities severely limited observers’ access to the vote and tried to intimidate them. Still, many of them managed to record instances of ballot-stuffing, falsification of protocols, intimidation of voters, and other forms of rigging.
In spite of intimidation tactics by the authorities (mentioned in last week’s BMB), thousands of Russians took part in the “Noon Against Putin” protests that the late Alexei Navalny suggested earlier this year. Participants turned up at polling stations exactly at noon on March 17 to signal to the authorities and to each other that there are many of them. The largest of such protests predictably took place at Russian diplomatic missions in large Western cities. Exit-poll results released by “Vote Abroad” suggested that, in most of these cities, Russian expats overwhelmingly voted for other candidates (even though this was not reflected in the official results). However, the protests had a noticeable effect on electoral figures in Moscow as well.
The Kremlin is eager to pretend that the election was a grand celebration of national unity around Putin. On March 18, Putin held a meeting with the three other candidates on the ballot. One by one, they endorsed the President and his policies before joining him on stage at a concert organized to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. The message to those who voted for another “systemic” candidate as a protest was that they did so in vain. Perhaps the most cynical moment of Putin’s post-election press conference was the President uttering Alexei Navalny’s name for the first time in front of the media, claiming that he was going to swap Navalny for Russian citizens jailed in the West prior to Navalny’s death.
While Yulia Navalnaya and others issued a call to Western leaders not to recognize the results of the election, most EU leaders and the U.S. government have been careful. They have not congratulated Putin, and most only went as far as to declare that they did not recognize the votes ostensibly cast in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Some Central and Eastern European leaders, such as Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky and his Lithuanian colleague Gabrielius Landsbergis, dismissed the election as a “farce.”
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Russians celebrated Putin’s recent election victory and the 10th anniversary of the illegal annexation of Crimea with a concert in Red Square on Tuesday. Putin’s favorite rock band, Lyube, performed, after which Putin gave a speech. He praised Crimea’s “return to their homeland,” as well as the “return” of the recently-annexed regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. He also thanked the crowd for their support in the presidential election (photo: kremlin.ru)
Crocus City Hall terrorist attack
At least 40 people were killed and 100 injured during a terrorist attack on a concert venue near Moscow, according to the Federal Security Service (FSB). On Friday evening, several gunmen with automatic rifles opened fire on a crowd in Crocus City Hall. Eyewitnesses have shared videos online of camouflage-clad attackers shooting people at point-blank range. A journalist from RIA Novosti reported that the terrorists then used grenades or incendiary bombs to set the building on fire. Within an hour, the fire had spread rapidly and the roof partially collapsed. It is not known exactly how many people were in the building at the time, but it could have been as many as the venue’s capacity of 6,200. According to Meduza, the rock band Picnic was scheduled to play a sold-out show that evening. The Bell also reported that a children’s dance competition was taking place in the Crocus Expo complex, and Moscow Children's Ombudsman Olga Yaroslavskaya said that children were injured in the attack. Firefighters and medics soon arrived on the scene, as well as police and special forces soldiers. Putin has not yet made a public comment, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the President is receiving constant updates on the situation.
Although some Russian lawmakers were quick to point the finger at Ukraine, Ukrainians immediately denied any involvement. “Ukraine certainly has nothing to do with the shooting/explosions in the Crocus City Hall,” Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak posted on X, “Ukraine has never resorted to the use of terrorist methods.” U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby also said that the U.S. had “no indication” that Ukraine was involved. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Embassy warned Americans in Russia to avoid crowded places due to the imminent threat of an extremist attack. When asked about this, Kirby clarified that the U.S. had no prior knowledge of this specific attack.
A few hours later, the Islamic State claimed responsibility through a statement posted to its Telegram channel. It reads, “Islamic State fighters attacked a large gathering of Christians in the city of Krasnogorsk on the outskirts of the Russian capital, Moscow, killing and wounding hundreds and causing great destruction to the place before they withdrew to their bases safely.” The Russian National Guard is currently searching the area for the attackers.
— Sara Ashbaugh
The Crocus City Hall concert venue was set on fire during a terrorist attack on Friday evening. Massive flames can be seen here springing from the building’s roof, which ultimately collapsed. The attackers started the blaze after committing a mass shooting, killing at least 40 people. Firefighters and ambulances quickly arrived to evacuate and treat the hundreds inside. The whereabouts of the assailants are currently unknown, although the Russian National Guard is searching the area. (photo: Maxim Shemetov / Reuters / Scanpix / LETA)
Ukraine to open more military recruitment centers
Ukrainian authorities plan to open 27 new recruitment centers across the country in the first half of 2024. The Ministry of Defense already launched two of them in Lviv and Zaporizhzhia. This new type of military recruitment center is designed to be a venue where interested candidates can obtain information, including about military service in general, available positions within the Armed Forces, and service in a certain military unit of interest. Additionally, such centers can provide guidance and support to recruits during the application process. The recruitment centers’ employees are civilians who are not authorized to hand out military summons to potential candidates.
The Ministry of Defense initiated the new recruitment project at the end of 2023 to allow those interested in joining the Armed Forces to choose a unit and a position that reflects their skills and experience. Besides working with local authorities to open the recruitment centers, the Ministry is also working with Ukrainian job search websites to publish available positions. Since the beginning of this initiative, local job boards have received over 37,000 applications for various roles within the military.
This is part of an overall effort to mobilize more people in 2024, along with a draft mobilization law that is currently in Ukrainian parliament. On Monday, during his visit to Kyiv, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham urged Ukrainian lawmakers to pass the bill as soon as possible, despite not being able to provide any assurances about the supplemental funding that has been stuck in U.S. Congress for months. “No matter what we do, you should be fighting,” Graham said, “No matter what we do, you’re fighting for you.”
— Lisa Noskova
On the Podcast
If we know how Russia's presidential election is going to turn out...why even bother holding the election? Join Aaron Schwartzbaum, András Tóth-Czifra, and Olga Khvostunova for an exploration of electoral autocracy and the political moment.
Quickfire: Regions
Ukraine continued attacking Russian oil refineries with drones over the past week, hitting six refineries between March 12 and 17. The attacks have affected, by some estimates, 11% of Russia’s total oil refining capacity, putting upward pressure on domestic prices and endangering exports. Earlier, these attacks forced the Russian government to suspend gasoline exports until September in order to ensure that a seasonal peak in domestic demand is satisfied. Drones have twice tried to hit the Kirishi refinery, so far without success. Kirishi is responsible for 7% of Russia’s fuel production, and hitting it could cause more significant imbalances in the market. Two border regions, Belgorod and Kursk, were also shelled by Ukraine and attacked by pro-Ukrainian militants during the election. Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov decided to evacuate 9,000 children from the region.
The first serious candidates for mayor of Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city, have been announced over the past week. Two of them are Governor Andrey Travnikov’s deputies, Maxim Kudryavtsev and Roman Telenchinov. The position will be filled by a vote in the city council after the selection of candidates by a “competition committee.” Novosibirsk scrapped direct mayoral elections last year, which led to the removal of Anatoly Lokot, the city’s Communist Party mayor. Meanwhile, Svetlana Kaverzina (one of the four independent opposition deputies who were elected in 2020 with the help of a local coalition, Alexei Navalny’s campaign, and the promise of cracking down on corruption in the construction sector) was declared a “foreign agent” and expelled from the city council’s construction committee. Her three colleagues had already been labeled foreign agents, and two of them were deprived of their mandates on the city council. Kaverzina had recently announced that she was going to enter the competition for mayor.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Quickfire: Ukraine
On Thursday morning, Russia launched another massive strike on Ukraine’s capital. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, all 31 launched missiles were intercepted and shot down, including 2 ballistic missiles and 29 cruise missiles. At least 13 people were injured as a result of the attack. Additionally, 2 residential buildings, 12 vehicles, and 47 private houses were damaged. On Wednesday afternoon, Russia hit an industrial area in Kharkiv, killing at least 5 people and injuring 8. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said that 5 people also have gone missing following the attack. Lastly, Russia has intensified shelling in the Sumy region, with some border villages now resembling the ruins of Bakhmut and Marinka. On March 13, 3 people were killed and 12 injured when Russia hit a residential building in Sumy. President Zelenskyy commented that Russians have dropped nearly 200 bombs on the Sumy region in March. He added that these strikes only emphasize how urgent the need for air defense systems is. “Kharkiv needs an adequate number of air defense systems, the Sumy region needs it, the Chernihiv region and all our regions suffering from Russian terror need it,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on March 19.
Polish farmers continue blocking the movement of trucks on the Polish-Ukrainian border, causing long lines in both directions. On Wednesday, they also organized nationwide protests. This has led to Ukraine losing 6.5 billion hryvnia (nearly $166 million) in revenue from customs in March alone, according to Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Taxation, and Customs Policy.
— Lisa Noskova