Terrorist attack in Dagestan
Gunmen targeted churches and police stations in a coordinated attack
Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
More than 20 people were killed in a series of coordinated terrorist attacks on religious buildings and police stations in Dagestan.
The Russian Foreign Ministry banned 81 European news websites in response to the EU restricting access to four Russian media outlets.
Russian gas company Novatek resumed liquefied natural gas shipments and work on Arctic energy projects despite U.S. and EU sanctions.
Ukraine struck a military training ground in Russia’s Krasnodar region, reportedly destroying drone storage sites.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Terrorism in Dagestan
On June 23, coordinated terrorist attacks against Orthodox churches, police stations, and a synagogue in the Republic of Dagestan left at least 20 people dead—mostly police officers—and 46 injured. One of the victims was an Orthodox priest. The attacks, which occurred in the cities of Makhachkala and Derbent, appear to have been planned to take place during the Orthodox holiday of Pentecost. There were local reports of heightened police activity in the Republic in the days following the attack, some triggered by fake reports of violence.
This is the third terrorist attack committed by radical Islamists in Russia this year. However, just like with the earlier attacks, pro-Kremlin media and public officials—in this case, the head of Dagestan, Sergey Melikov, and the head of the State Duma’s International Affairs Committee, Leonid Slutsky—claimed that Ukraine was involved in the violence. Melikov also implied that last year’s attempted anti-Jewish pogrom at the Makhachkala Airport and the widespread anti-mobilization protests that swept the Republic in 2022 were attempts to destabilize Dagestan.
There is no evidence of Ukrainian involvement, but it seems that some of the attackers do have links to local political elites. Two were identified as the sons of Magomed Omarov, the head of the Sergokala District and an influential member of the local elite, who was subsequently dismissed and detained. A third attacker was Omarov’s nephew. A fourth was identified as the former head of the nominally opposition “Just Russia” party in the same district. The head of Dagestan announced an investigation into government officials and local deputies following the attacks. Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of neighboring Chechnya, also warned local elites that they could suffer if their relatives attack police. According to the Chechen opposition channel 1ADAT, Kadyrov’s security forces started detaining young people.
Dagestan is one of Russia’s poorest and most heavily-subsidized regions (along with Chechnya), where locals often complain of poor public services and a lack of economic opportunities. It appears that the sudden outbursts of violence over the past two years have started worrying both federal officials, who could not prevent them, and local leaders, whose popular legitimacy is weak.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
At least six people died during a fire in the town of Fryazino in the Moscow region. The blaze began on Monday afternoon and quickly engulfed the top half of an eight-story office building. It took more than 130 specialists and 50 pieces of equipment all night to extinguish it. The building used to be home to the Platan Research Institute, an electronics producer that was sanctioned by the U.S. for its links to the Russian Defense Ministry. However, Russian state media reported that the building is currently leased to other businesses. The Investigative Committee opened a criminal negligence case into the incident and arrested two people: the deputy director of the property management company and a representative of the building’s deceased owner. (photo: t.me/vorobiev_live)
EU media banned
On Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it was restricting access to 81 European media outlets in Russia.
The move is a direct response to the EU’s decision to ban four pro-Kremlin media sites: Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The EU announced its intention to suspend the broadcasting activities of these four outlets last month, but the ban did not come into effect until June 25. “These media outlets are under the permanent direct or indirect control of the leadership of the Russian Federation, and have been essential and instrumental in bringing forward and supporting Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and for the destabilisation of its neighbouring countries,” the EU Council said in a press release. The ban does not prevent the outlets from conducting research and interviews in Europe. These are not the first Russian media outlets to be banned in Europe; shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU revoked broadcasting licenses for Russian state-controlled media outlets Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik.
In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova promised retaliatory measures. The next day, the Foreign Ministry published a list of 81 European sites to which access would be restricted. The list includes media outlets from 25 different countries, such as Germany’s Der Spiegel, France’s AFP, Spain’s Agencia EFE, and Italy’s La Repubblica, to name a few. It also includes pan-European outlets, such as Politico. According to the Ministry, these outlets “systemically spread false information about the special military operation.” In its statement, the Ministry also said that the EU’s ban forced Moscow to respond with “symmetrical and proportional countermeasures” and that Russia would consider revising its decision “if restrictions against Russian media outlets are lifted.” European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova called Russia’s retaliatory ban “nonsense.” “Propaganda outlets funded by Russia to spread disinformation as part of Russia’s military doctrine are not the same as independent media,” she said.
The Russian government has severely cracked down on independent media since the beginning of its war in Ukraine. By labeling certain outlets “foreign agents,” “undesirable,” or “extremist,” Russia has effectively criminalized any criticism of the war.
— Sara Ashbaugh
Gas and coal exports
The gas company Novatek opened its summer navigation season across the Northern Sea Route with a shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant. The shipment is headed along Russia’s Arctic coast towards Asia in an ice-class tanker. It was launched shortly after the U.S. adopted further sanctions against Russia’s Arctic and Baltic energy projects, and the EU banned the transshipment of Russian LNG in its territory, complicating Russia’s access to Asian energy markets.
The combined sanctions risk freezing or even killing Novatek’s flagship Arctic LNG 2 project. The project was already delayed due to the company’s limited access to the technology required to operate the plant and ship in Arctic waters year-round. With the summer navigation season open, Novatek may use the opportunity to start delivering gas from the Gydan Peninsula, where Arctic LNG 2 is located, to demonstrate that the project is still viable. Novatek also announced that it plans to resume the delivery of the foundations of the second stage of Arctic LNG 2 in July 2024, in spite of the sanctions that have made it dubious whether the gas liquefied at the plant will have a market.
Meanwhile, Russia also launched the first shipment of coal from the Kemerovo Region, one of the country’s main coal-mining areas, via the so-called North-South corridor, which aims to alleviate traffic on Russia’s overburdened Far Eastern railway network. The coal will be transferred by train through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, and from there it will be shipped to Mumbai, India.
Transit bottlenecks limited the opportunities of Russian coal exporters even before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, the forced reorientation of Russia’s trade from European to Asian markets has exacerbated the problem and significantly reduced profit margins in an otherwise politically well-connected industry (the former governor of Kemerovo, Sergey Tsivilyov, whose family controls the Kolmar coal company, was recently appointed federal Minister for Energy), as competition between exporters for scarce railway capacities has increased. This has contributed to a loss of market share for Russian exporters even as the market recovered over the past months. Proposed solutions include shipping coal from Arctic ports, building dedicated railway lines using further partnerships with Chinese investors, and even building specialized airships to transport coal.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
A passenger train derailed in Russia’s Far North on Wednesday, killing three people and injuring around 40 others. The train was traveling south from Vorkuta to Novorossiysk when it derailed near Inta in the Komi Republic. 232 people were on board the train’s 14 cars, nine of which overturned. The Investigative Committee opened an inquiry into the derailment, and said that the cause was likely erosion of the ground underneath the tracks due to heavy rainfall. Russian Railways promised to give the families of those killed in the accident 2 million rubles ($22,900) and those injured 500,000 to 1 million rubles ($5,900). (photo: Russian Investigative Committee)
Ukraine hits a Russian military training base
On June 21, Ukrainian forces targeted a military training ground in Russia’s Yeysk, Krasnodar region. This was a joint military operation carried out by Ukraine’s naval forces and the State Security Service (SBU). Ukraine officially confirmed that the overnight strike successfully hit drone storage sites at Russia’s 726th Air Defense Training Center, which is used to train personnel in the operation of various unmanned aerial vehicles. As a result, 20 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, 50 Lancet attack drones, 40 ZALA reconnaissance drones, and 10 SuperCam reconnaissance drones were destroyed. In addition, Ukrainian forces reported casualties among the instructors and technical personnel.
Russian media did not report on the attack. The Telegram channel Rybar-Z did briefly mention the drone strike on Yeysk in a post, but it did not specify if there were any damages. The Russian Ministry of Defense commented that Ukraine used “Neptune-MD” long-range missiles to carry out the attack, and that air defense systems shot down 43 drones in the Krasnodar region overnight. In its report, Ukraine did not mention which weapons it used to strike the Russian targets.
— Lisa Noskova
On the podcast
Why has the Global South, historically on the receiving end of colonialism and imperialism, maintained what might be called a neutral stance towards Russia’s war against Ukraine? Ivan Grek, Director of the Russia Program at George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss.
Quickfire: Regions
The trial of Evan Gershkovich, an American journalist imprisoned in Russia since March 2023 on espionage charges, began in Yekaterinburg this week. Russian authorities have alleged, without evidence, that Gershkovich was collecting information about a defense contractor on behalf of U.S. intelligence services. The Russian Foreign Ministry has raised the possibility of a prisoner exchange with the U.S., but neither the trial nor negotiations on Gershkovich’s possible exchange are public. Additionally, several professional associations of journalists called on the U.S. government this week to also recognize another U.S. journalist, Alsu Kurmasheva, who has been held in Russia since October 2023, as wrongfully detained. Meanwhile, Russian authorities continue targeted repressions in other regions as well. In Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city, the local office of the Federal Security Service summoned the two remaining independent deputies of the city’s local council for questioning in a case having to do with the “financing of extremist activities,” which is usually code for past cooperation with a banned opposition organization. The two deputies believe this is the authorities’ attempt to force them to leave Russia, as it also happened to two of their colleagues.
An official from the Chelyabinsk Region was tipped to head the Russian-appointed government in the occupied Luhansk Region of Ukraine. Egor Kovalchuk, previously the mayor of the city of Miass, is also an associate of Chelyabinsk Governor Alexei Teksler. Tesker is the head of the Committee on Economy and Finance in the State Council, an important deliberating body. Kovalchuk is also an alumnus of the “School of Governors” at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, similar to many recently-appointed regional officials. Kovalchuk’s appointment is the latest in the series of Russian officials, rather than local allies, named to leadership positions in the occupied territories in Ukraine. In general, direct participation in war-related activities continues to be a performative loyalty test for the Kremlin, one that officials are increasingly expected to pass if they are looking to advance.
The Ministry of Economic Development suggested giving all Russian regions the right to introduce a tourist tax. The tax will be collected from hotel and guesthouse operators and its base rate will be around 65 rubles ($0.75) per room per day (which regions can reduce at will). Over the past five years, three Russian regions and St. Petersburg introduced a similar tax as a pilot project. With the countrywide introduction of the tax, the Russian government likely also wants to harness the increased interest in domestic tourism, a consequence of the war against Ukraine. The Ministry’s proposal comes shortly after it became official that all additional fiscal income from higher personal and corporate income taxes would be collected at the federal level with no guarantees of the money being redistributed between regions. Expected incomes from tourist taxes are a magnitude smaller; in 2023, three regions collected 1.5 billion rubles ($17.5 million) from the tax between themselves.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Quickfire: Ukraine
On June 25, 90 Ukrainian prisoners of war returned home from Russian captivity. The group included 32 National Guard members, 18 border guards, 17 naval service members, 15 Armed Forces personnel, and eight territorial defense members. 59 of the released servicemembers defended Mariupol. This is the 53rd prisoner exchange since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, 3,300 Ukrainian prisoners of war have been released from Russian captivity since February 24, 2022.
On June 25, the Razumkov Centre, a Ukrainian think tank, published a public opinion survey on the level of trust Ukrainians have in social institutions, politicians, and other public figures. According to the results, only 33% of respondents believe Ukraine is heading in the right direction, while 47% think the country is moving in the wrong direction. For comparison, in February-March 2022, 60% of those surveyed felt Ukraine was moving in the right direction. Ukraine's Armed Forces are the most trusted institution, with 90% of respondents expressing confidence in them. Meanwhile, government officials and political parties are the least trusted, with only 15.7% and 14.2% of respondents expressing trust in them respectively. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the most trusted politician, with 54% of interviewees expressing their trust in him. The data was collected from June 6-12, involving 2,016 respondents over the age of 18 across 22 Ukrainian regions. The survey was conducted in government-controlled territories that were not experiencing active hostilities.
— Lisa Noskova