The ball is in their court
U.S. and Ukraine negotiate an interim ceasefire proposal
Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations met in Saudi Arabia, where Ukraine agreed to a temporary ceasefire in the war with Russia.
The Russian government did not accept the U.S. and Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal, citing a number of conditions and concerns.
Russian forces made significant advances in the Kursk Region while Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Russia yet.
— Sara Ashbaugh, Editor in Chief
Ukraine agrees to an interim ceasefire
U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss the prospect of a ceasefire with Russia. By the end of the meeting, the delegations agreed to a temporary, month-long ceasefire and released a joint statement outlining the terms. “Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the statement reads. It also called on all parties to “immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace,” pending Russia’s acceptance of the ceasefire proposal.
In addition to the ceasefire agreement, the joint statement also announced that the U.S. would “immediately” resume intelligence sharing and security assistance for Ukraine. These were paused in late February after the explosive meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, when Trump accused Zelenskyy of not being grateful for U.S. aid. Intelligence sharing is crucial for Ukraine to identify and target Russian military positions, and restoring the approximately $2 billion per month in U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine is essential for maintaining the frontlines. In the joint statement released on Tuesday, the Ukrainian delegation noted Ukraine’s “strong gratitude” for President Trump and the American people—likely a further attempt to smooth over increasingly fragile relations between the two countries.
The statement also addressed the U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement, which was put on hold after Zelenskyy and Trump’s public confrontation. “Lastly, both countries’ presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security,” the joint statement says. According to Trump, the minerals deal—which gives the U.S. stake in Ukrainian state-owned mineral deposits—will be a sufficient security guarantee to deter future Russian aggression. The joint statement does not mention any additional security guarantees for Ukraine, which Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested. However, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said that the parties discussed further security guarantees during their meeting. “We also got into substantive details on how this war is going to permanently end, what type of guarantees they’re going to have for their long-term security and prosperity,” he said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a statement to the press following the meeting. During his remarks, he reiterated U.S. commitment to sustainable peace in the region and called on Russia to accept the ceasefire proposal. “We'll take this offer now to the Russians and we hope they'll say yes to peace,” he said, “The ball is now in their court.” If Russia rejects the offer, he added, “we'll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
— Sara Ashbaugh
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations gathered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for ceasefire negotiations. The U.S. was represented by National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while the Ukrainian delegation included Foreign Affairs Minister Andriy Sybiga, Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. This was the first official meeting between the two countries since President Trump and President Zelenskyy’s public spat in the White House on February 28. (photo: AFP Photo / Official Telegram Channel of the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak)
Russia’s reaction to the ceasefire proposal
As expected, the Russian government did not accept the ceasefire proposal announced by Ukraine and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia, but it did not reject it completely either, opting instead to tie its decision to conditions that the Kremlin can be reasonably sure the Ukrainian government will not accept. Saying that any truce would have to “address the root causes” of the war, President Vladimir Putin hinted that Russia would demand the immediate halt of weapon deliveries to Ukraine and military mobilization in Ukraine. He also asked who would enforce the ceasefire.
Otherwise, the Kremlin’s demands—that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the four regions claimed by Russia, recognize the annexation of Crimea, and pledge never to join NATO—remain in place. U.S. intelligence reports also suggest that Putin has not given up on his initial aim of domination over Kyiv. Predictably, Russian war bloggers, whose job it is to cheer on atrocities, reacted to the U.S.-Ukrainian proposal with skepticism and outrage.
Putin also met with U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff on March 13 behind closed doors and had a phone call with Trump the following day, which Trump called “very good.” The Moscow Times reported that the Kremlin is exploring the possibility of a Trump-Putin meeting in April or May, around Orthodox Easter. However, Russian officials would like to postpone the meeting as long as possible in order to map what concessions Russia can achieve under a deal with the U.S. government.
The Kremlin’s main objective remains to have sanctions lifted as soon as possible without a comprehensive peace deal, just in case the Russian government deems that it can achieve more by continuing the war. However, Russia also needs to weigh the chances of the White House blaming Russia for refusing a ceasefire, which was likely the Ukrainian government’s main objective with the proposal. Sources of the news outlet Vyorstka claimed that the Russian presidential administration was surprised by the joint communique between Ukraine and the U.S. The Trump Administration is reportedly considering how to ease sanctions on Russia, including the G7 oil price cap and sanctions on Russian citizens. However, Trump also threatened Russia with “very bad, devastating” sanctions this week, and his administration let lapse an exemption adopted under the Biden administration that allowed specific energy-related transactions to continue with sanctioned Russian banks. This came days after Bloomberg reported a significant hike in the loading of sanctioned Russian oil vessels. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a Trump ally, was reportedly pushing for the EU to remove sanctions on several Russian businessmen, including Mikhail Fridman, but eventually dropped this demand and approved the extension of sanctions for another six months.
While it is likely that Trump is motivated by a potential Nobel Peace Prize nomination in the case of a successful resolution of the war, U.S. policymaking regarding Russia and Ukraine remains chaotic and difficult to predict. This makes it impossible to rule out that the U.S. government will again put the blame on Ukraine for the potential failure of the ceasefire proposal.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
On Tuesday, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Russia since the beginning of the full scale invasion. The Russian Defense Ministry reported downing 337 drones in total—91 of them over the Moscow region. According to Moscow Governor Andrey Vorobyov, several buildings were damaged (including an apartment building in Ramenskoye, pictured here), three people were killed, and 18 were injured in the strike. The attack came just hours before the U.S.-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations in Saudi Arabia, likely in an attempt by Kyiv to push Russia closer to a ceasefire agreement. (photo: Governor Andrei Vorobyov via Reuters)
Kursk counteroffensive and successful drone attacks in Russia
The Russian army claimed to have retaken the key Kursk Region town of Sudzha on March 12, seven months after the start of Ukraine’s incursion into the region in an attempt to divert Russian forces from attacking Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are reportedly leaving the region as Russian troops say they are retaking further settlements, essentially ending the incursion by giving up territory taken in Russia. Over the past months, the Russian army has gradually pushed back Ukrainian forces, including with the help of North Korean soldiers. Following the fall of Sudzha, the chief commander of Ukraine’s military, Oleksandr Syrskyi, dismissed Major General Dmitry Krasilnikov, who was in charge of the Kursk operation.
For Russia, pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk Region before substantial negotiations could take place for a ceasefire or peace talks was important to take the option of a territory exchange off the table and also to strengthen domestic stability. On March 12, Vladimir Putin traveled to the region for the first time since the beginning of the incursion. He wore military fatigues, apparently mimicking Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and claimed that any Ukrainians captured in the region would be treated as terrorists. Notably, this was the first time since the start of Russia’s full scale invasion that Putin wore military gear. The past weeks have seen increasing discontent among the residents of the region who were displaced by the incursion; the inability of the regional and federal governments to distribute aid led to fears of wider social instability and prompted the Kremlin to increase federal transfers to the region. Corruption investigations against people involved in the erection of defensive structures in Kursk prior to Ukraine’s incursion also continue.
Ukraine, however, has continued to conduct successful drone attacks in Russia. On March 11, the largest such attack (so far) took place: over 340 drones were spotted in at least ten regions of Russia, including close to Moscow where three people were reported dead. In response to Russia’s missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Ukrainian drone attacks over the past week mainly targeted industrial and energy establishments, including Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara Region, Surgutneftegaz’s KINEF refinery in the Leningrad Region, and a fuel depot in Chuvashia. The attacks took place prior to the meeting of the representatives of the U.S. and Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
On the podcast
Where does the U.S. stand in the world as Trump (re)assumes office? How is his approach towards Ukraine shaping up? Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore the broader context and drivers of how policy towards Russia will, and will not, be made.
Quickfire: Regions
According to sources of the RBC news site, the selection of candidates for the next cohort of the “School of Governors” project at the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) was paused because resources have been reoriented to “Time of Heroes,” a similar program that recruits war participants to train them for positions in public administration. Over the past decade, “School of Governors,” a project tied to deputy head of the Presidential Administration Sergey Kirienko, has been the Kremlin’s main program to train a coherent public administration elite: more than 50 governors and a number of other local and federal officials have been appointed from its alumni. “Time of Heroes” was launched last year, with more than 20 participants appointed to several mainly (but not only) lightweight positions in local, regional, and federal public administration, even as there has been pushback against this from established elites. The reported reallocation could be the clearest indication yet that the Kremlin regards “Time of Heroes” as a key vehicle to control the reintegration and social elevation of select war participants. As of 2025, regional programs now complement the main federal track in order to promote the employment of returnees in various jobs beyond public administration.
The government approved the creation of new so-called special economic zones in three Russian regions: Vologda, Novosibirsk, and the Moscow Region. The three regions will spend a combined 1.5 billion rubles in the next three years to create infrastructure in the zones for the development of new manufacturing and high-tech plans, logistics, and tourism. Special economic zones provide tax breaks and simplified regulatory procedures. The Russian government has been using them increasingly often to foster investment in specific regions (e.g. in the Far East) or to draw private funds into industries deemed strategically important, such as radioelectronics, which would not otherwise take place due to an unfavorable business environment. The zones also substitute for direct financial aid to regions at a time when the government is trying to cut back on this. In Novosibirsk, the zone will be created essentially to support the investments of logistics businessmen Alexander Kakhidze and Alexander Nizovskikh. In Vologda, the zone, which Governor Georgy Filimonov lobbied for, may include a tourist village.
Another major transportation project could be postponed or called off entirely due to, at least in part, the war and the domestic prioritization of war-related expenditures limiting the amount of available federal support. Alexei Tsydenov, the head of Buryatia and the chairman of the State Council’s transportation commission, said this week that the planned “Belkomur” railway connecting Russia’s Arctic coast with Solikamsk in the Urals would be built “once the global economy stabilizes,” which likely is coded language for “after sanctions on Russia are withdrawn.” According to the latest version, Gazprombank was going to partner with the Komi Republic and the Arkhangelsk Region to finance the estimated 330-billion-ruble investment, but the Russian authorities have also sought Chinese financing. The project, which was initially proposed more than 20 years ago, would require the construction of more than 700 kilometers of new tracks, allowing, among other things, coal mined in the Komi Republic (as well as timber and containers from Asia) to reach the deep sea port of Arkhangelsk significantly faster. Due to the war, Russia also lost access to export markets for these commodities in Europe.
— Andras Toth-Czifra