Unrest in Ufa
Hundreds gathered in Bashkortostan's capital city to protest the sentencing of local activist Fail Alsynov
Hello from the Bear Market Brief.
This week in the news:
Thousands took to the streets in the Republic of Bashkortostan to protest the sentencing of environmental activist Fail Alsynov.
Regional governors are following Putin’s lead in their responses to ongoing heating outages and utility crises.
Polish truckers have agreed to pause their protest at the Ukrainian border, but another border blockade is gaining momentum in Romania.
Employees of the Ukrainian investigative platform Bihus.info were fired after a video surfaced of them buying and using drugs.
Crackdown in Bashkortostan
In one of the biggest protests in Russia in the past two years, thousands of people took to the streets in Baymak in the Republic of Bashkortostan on January 17 to voice their disagreement with the sentencing of Fail Alsynov. Alsynov is a local activist and former head of the now-banned Bashkort organization, which advocated for Bashkir emancipation. In 2022, Alsynov also called on Bashkirs to refuse to participate in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The activist—who had earlier been labeled an “extremist” and “terrorist”—was sentenced to four years on charges of inciting ethnic hatred. On January 19, the protests moved on to Ufa, the regional capital, where several hundred people took to the streets amid heavy police presence.
The protesters also demanded the resignation of the head of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, who personally initiated the case against Alsynov. Khabirov did so after Alsynov delivered a speech at a protest against environmentally disruptive gold mining practices last year, where he spoke negatively about guest workers. According to Alsynov’s supporters, the prosecution misrepresented the activist’s words (his speech was translated into Russian from Bashkir).
The authorities deployed a near-full array of repressive tactics against the protesters, including the blocking of messenger apps and Telegram channels, heavy riot police presence, and arresting protesters. The protesters were charged with “mass rioting” and attacking law enforcement (even as Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, denied that the actions qualified as “mass protests”). This level of response is remarkable and suggests a heightened anxiety about the public mood before the March presidential election. The protests themselves have been building up for days: several hundreds of people had already gathered in support of Alsynov on January 15 when the sentencing was originally going to take place (before it was postponed).
It is also worth noting that Bashkortostan has seen some of the most potent local conservationist protests over the past few years. Examples include a 2020 movement against the industrial exploitation of Kushtau, a mountain held sacred by locals, as well as a years-long series of protests against gold mining practices. Alsynov was involved in both of these movements. These environmental protests were triggered by local issues, but were also partly inspired by other conservationist movements that have sprung up around Russia over the past few years. These movements typically do not directly challenge the Kremlin or even the local authorities, but the growing anger against Khabirov in Alsynov’s case shows the potential consequences of government overreach.
Khabirov broke his silence on January 18, but only to underline that the authorities blame forces with a malicious agenda for the protests. The governor accused Bashkir nationalists of trying to trigger a civil war from abroad. The head of the regional parliament’s Committee on Security accused “foreign intelligence services” of coordinating the protests and linked the organizers to Ukraine and the Baltic countries. This explanation for protests has become common in pro-government media and political circles over the past few years. Khabirov has (so far) enjoyed the support of the President. However, if the Kremlin decides that the Governor is unable to keep his region quiet before the presidential election, he could easily find himself dismissed.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
On January 17, thousands of people took to the streets in Bashkortostan to protest the sentencing of activist Fail Alsynov. The protests spread from the town of Baymak to the regional capital Ufa, pictured here. On Friday, around 1,500 protesters gathered at Salawat Yulayev Square in Ufa, despite heavy police presence and repeated threats that they would be arrested for attending an unauthorized event. At least a dozen protesters were arrested in both Baymak and Ufa, all while the Kremlin continues to downplay the event in the media. (photo: SOTAvision / Telegram)
Reactions to the utilities crisis
Following President Putin’s reaction to heating disruptions in the Moscow Region—which included arrests and the nationalization of a military production plant responsible for the issue—it appears that both federal and regional officials are now trying to follow Putin’s lead and use a similar blueprint to deal with the problem: look determined and shift responsibility downstream. Lipetsk Governor Igor Artamonov angrily criticized building management companies and suggested legal changes to deal more strictly with those neglecting upkeep in a video posted publicly. In Dagestan, where residents have been experiencing electricity disruptions for months, providers cracked down on cryptominers. In Novosibirsk, local authorities even invented a peculiar newspeak expression (“parameters are reduced”) to talk about service disruptions. Later they agreed to call a state of emergency, but reportedly also banned protests.
Andrey Gurulyov, a State Duma deputy from the Transbaikal Territory, on the other hand, argued that further utility tariff hikes will be necessary for repairs, even though tariffs have been raised several times over the past few years in most regions (including Gurulyov’s) and they have typically not led to an increase in service quality, only more protests. Gennady Zyuganov, the head of the Communist Party, suggested fully nationalizing utility networks in order for the government to repair them in a coordinated manner, an idea that was also supported by Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. This is unlikely to happen as long as the war is putting a severe limit on other public expenditures, but the purpose of Zyuganov’s comment was likely to shift the blame from the authorities to private service providers.
Meanwhile, harsh weather continues in many regions, and accidents in utility networks are causing disruptions that affect tens of thousands of people. Over the past week, several hot water pipes burst in regions such as Nizhny Novgorod, Lipetsk, Omsk, Oryol, and Novosibirsk. According to the independent news site 7x7, at least 43 (of 83) regions have experienced service disruptions over the past few weeks.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
One border is unblocked, another is blocked
Polish truckers unblocked the Dorohusk-Yahodyn, Korczowa-Krakovets, and Hrebenne-Rava Ruska checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border on January 16 following rounds of negotiations between Warsaw and the truckers. For now, the drivers agreed to pause their protest until March 1. “Registration and passage of trucks across the border in both directions is carried out as usual,” the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine posted on Facebook.
Last week, Deputy Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine Serhiy Derkach stated that the country fulfilled its part of an agreement between Ukraine and Poland to unblock the border. He added that the agreement was reached back in December during the visit of the Polish government representatives to Kyiv. It was then up to the Polish authorities to work on satisfying the rest of the truckers’ demands.
Polish truckers started blocking the border with Ukraine on November 6, 2023, in protest of the EU’s liberalization of transit rules for Ukrainian truckers. The blockade caused long lines on the border and negatively impacted Ukraine’s economy.
As this positive news came from the Polish-Ukrainian border, another border blockade was gaining momentum—this time on the Romanian-Ukrainian border. Protesters are dissatisfied with the high fuel prices, high insurance rates, EU measures to protect the environment, and pressures on the domestic market caused by importing Ukrainian agricultural goods. Hundreds of Romanian farmers and truckers are blocking access to the Ukrainian border and holding protests in Bucharest.
According to the Romanian Minister of Agriculture, Florin Barbu, the Ministry reached an agreement with ten farmers’ associations on a number of demands on Monday. However, the protests will continue while the truckers are still negotiating with the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure.
— Lisa Noskova
On January 19, Russian Orthodox believers celebrated Epiphany—a religious holiday honoring the baptism of Jesus. To commemorate the holiday, parishioners immerse themselves in icy water three times, symbolizing the Holy Trinity. Pictured here is the Epiphany immersion pool at the Izmailovsky Kremlin in Moscow, with people lining up to take their turn in the blessed water. According to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, President Putin also took part in the holiday tradition. (photo: Evgenia Novozhenina / Reuters)
Investigative journalists under pressure
On Tuesday, a video of Bihus.info staff members using and buying drugs at a party appeared online. Bihus.info is a Ukrainian investigative platform known for unveiling corruption schemes in the country. The video includes a recording of a phone сonversation between the outlet’s employees making arrangements to purchase the substances, as well as footage of them using drugs.
Denys Bihus, the head of the platform, later addressed the incident, saying that the staff members in the recording were fired following the release of the video. He added that, moving forward, everyone working with Bihus.info will have to undergo drug tests. “Of course, the surveillance was illegal, and the goals of those who made the recordings are clear. But this is no excuse for what we saw on the video, namely the use of prohibited substances by several of our colleagues,” reads the message on Bihus.info’s YouTube channel.
On Wednesday, the head of the Committee on Freedom of Speech within the Ukrainian Parliament, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, announced that the surveillance of Bihus.info is being investigated. The Committee will work with the Security Service of Ukraine to find out who was responsible for the surveillance. Yurchyshyn believes that this is a case of intimidation of journalists.
The video about Bihus.info was published a day after another prominent investigative journalist, Yurii Nikolov, said that two unidentified men showed up at his apartment on Monday aggressively banging on his door and verbally insulting him. Nikolov is a co-founder of the Nashi Groshi project, known for investigations exposing public procurement corruption.
— Lisa Noskova
On the Podcast
Almost two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Bear Market Brief investigates how we got here in the first place. What does theory say about Vladimir Putin’s decision making? Seva Gunitsky joins to discuss.
Quickfire: Regions
According to the Kommersant daily, Novosibirsk-based S7 Airlines, Russia’s largest privately owned carrier, is reducing its staff in its Moscow locations (laying off 7% of its workforce). Additionally, the company will execute a reorganization plan in order to develop its Novosibirsk hub instead due to problems with the servicing of its Airbus planes. The development reflects the long-term impact of sanctions and the withdrawal of Western businesses on Russia’s aviation industry. Airlines are forced to scale down operations and refocus their activity from westbound to eastbound and southbound flights. Smaller Russian airlines have been experiencing a growing number of incidents over the past few months. Over the past week, at least seven incidents happened as a result of what looks like insufficient upkeep.
Governors are taking steps to meet the Kremlin’s expectation that they actively promote an ultraconservative agenda not only with words, but also with policies. In the Omsk Region, Governor Vitaly Khotsenko announced the creation of a council to “preserve and strengthen traditional Russian spiritual and moral values.” Although it is unclear what exact powers the council will have, it appears that the Governor hopes to use it to coordinate activities with educational and religious organizations. In the Krasnodar Territory, Governor Veniamin Kondratiev suggested tightening regulations around nightclubs due to the ongoing war, only days after Putin (and other leading officials) spoke out against decadent parties, contrasting them with sacrifices needed to support Russia’s war effort.
President Putin met with the heads of some Russian municipalities at an event in Moscow. The main purpose of the meeting and of Putin’s earlier appearance at the forum seemed to be for Putin to remind municipal leaders of the importance of supporting the government’s agenda and to “maintain social cohesion” (likely a code word for ensuring that their cities remain quiet before the March presidential election). According to a report by Kommersant’s Andrei Kolesnikov, many municipal heads were simply not allowed to get close to Putin, who instead talked to a handful of handpicked mayors of important cities. This is in line with Putin’s general aversion to large meetings and crowds in recent years. However, the event itself reflects the Presidential Administration’s more direct focus on creating a coherent pool of municipal leaders and strengthening the federal center’s control over municipalities.
— Andras Toth-Czifra
Quickfire: Ukraine
On January 16, Ukraine’s parliament passed a law that creates an electronic conscription registry to digitize the military and boost the country’s mobilization efforts. According to the new legislation, those overseeing mobilization will receive access to a single digital registry containing all the relevant data, such as potential conscripts’ personal and contact information. The law also aims to simplify the process of identifying those who have already taken part in combat. Back in September, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov announced that he intended to digitize conscription and introduce electronic military ID cards.
A Ukrainian drone strike caused a large fire at a Russian oil depot in the Bryansk region on Friday. Four oil tanks caught on fire following the attack on a storage depot near Klintsy, causing a blaze that spread over 1,000 square meters (10,763 square feet). No one was injured. This is the second Ukrainian attack on Russian oil infrastructure this week; the Russian Defense Ministry reported shooting down a Ukrainian drone aimed at an oil depot in St. Petersburg on Thursday. Ukrainian sources, however, claim that the drone hit its target. “It was made in Ukraine. Yes, last night we hit the target. This thing crossed 1,250 kilometers last night,” Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin said.
— Lisa Noskova & Sara Ashbaugh